![Expert estimates of probability are often off by factors of hundreds or
thousands. [...] I used to be annoyed when the margin of error was high in
a forecasting model that I might put together. Now I view it as perhaps the
single most important piece of information that a forecaster provides. When
we publish a forecast on FiveThirtyEight, I go to great lengths to document
the uncertainty attached to it, even if the uncertainty is sufficiently
large that the forecast won't make for punchy headlines.](/assets/img/quote-photos/expert-estimates-of-probability-are-often-off-by-factors-of-hundreds-or-thousand.jpg)
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