Alan Ackerman
Alan Ackerman
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I think the market senses something good going on. On the one hand, the feeling is that the economy is starting to show signs of improvement. But there are plenty of skeptics around who say that feeling may be a little premature, and they are selling on strength,
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Bargain hunters are surfacing today. The feeling going into next year is the economy is going to slow down.
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My feeling is the Fed hasn't clearly indicated that it's fighting a slower economy rather than inflation. Economists and individual investors would like to see the Fed cut rates by 75 basis points and I do believe that would take some of the pressure off the consumer.
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Investors are being cautiously optimistic. There's a desire to put money back into the market based on a feeling that the worst of the economy may be behind us, ... However, there's not enough evidence of that.
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There's a feeling that oil prices will work higher still. The U.S. is more dependent on foreign imports than it has been in a while, and with oil prices on the rise, buyers moved quickly into oil stocks and energy related stocks,
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Also, this market still needs the underpinning of improved corporate earnings. We've not got the evidence that that's happening in a meaningful way. I like the way it has stabilized following the sharp moves since Sept. 21, but I am concerned that not enough fundamentals are in place.
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Also, this market still needs the underpinning of improved corporate earnings, ... We've not got the evidence that that's happening in a meaningful way. I like the way it has stabilized following the sharp moves since Sept. 21, but I am concerned that not enough fundamentals are in place.
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I like two stocks, Apache and Ocean Energy. I don't own either of them. The firm doesn't make a market in any of them. We don't have an investment banking relationship, to the best of my knowledge, but I think both stocks have done well in the poor market, ... Apache is really building a pipeline of reserves. They drill in seven major countries. They're natural gas rich. They have held in this market and I think we can look for big earnings coming up over the next year or two.
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It will take some type of catalyst to turn this market. One can't be sure what that will be or when we will see it. Meanwhile, valuations are contracting significantly and my sense is that the market is reaching an oversold condition. Much of the market's rebound will have to do with clearing up some of the uncertainties.
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That has helped the techs today (Wednesday), ... They have a reasonably upbeat forecast.
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This has been a Benny Goodman-type market, ... lots of swing, and it's very, very difficult to get a handle on long-term positioning when the market is moving up and down so rapidly.
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There's some technology follow- through, ... Some feel that the Fed is chasing a genie that's not yet out of the bottle.
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The market story today is essentially Cisco. It's pulling lots of other stocks down,
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It was a livable number, ... It encouraged some bargain hunters to go to work.