Anthony Cordesman
Anthony Cordesman
Anthony H. Cordesmanholds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studiesand is a national security analyst on a number of global conflicts...
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Ulster (Northern Ireland) and the Balkans have already shown how difficult it is to split cities, and with Iraq's centralized and failing infrastructure, and impoverished economy, violence and economics cannot be separated.
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The reality is that if the Shi'ites and Kurds can be inclusive and if they can reach a settlement with most of the Iraqi Sunnis, then the efforts of U.S. and coalition forces and the growing Iraqi forces are almost certain to be successful,
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The real issue is that they have a very large booster under development.
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Iraq might be a far easier opponent than its force strengths indicate. But it also is potentially a very serious military opponent indeed,
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America and its allies face many risks and problems in Iraq, but it is all too easy to snatch defeat from the jaws of uncertainty.
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The Yemeni central government has done what it can, but it is very weak. It is not a matter of the government not trying. But there are limits to it can do.
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You're watching the insurgents develop more sophisticated methods of attack, and more sophisticated IEDs. They're using shaped charges and anti-tank mines stacked together. They're using 500-pound bombs that can destroy any armored vehicle. They're using these so-called swarming attacks, firing several RPG rounds at one lightly armored vehicle.
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There's so much spin in these numbers. A lot of facts get disguised. . . . Total manpower is meaningless. The army is the key force in direct combat.
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The problem with the speeches is they get gradually more realistic, but they are still exercises in spin. They don't outline the risks. They don't create a climate where people trust what's being said.