Arnie Berman
Arnie Berman
boring fourth losers people stuff
At this point, boring makes for an interesting fourth quarter. I think this year's losers win. The stuff that people chucked from their portfolios is what they will want back.
companies earnings expect good ibm investors managing period
IBM was one of many companies that were good at managing expectations in a period where investors were conditioned to expect earnings surprises.
currently dire nearly prices stock technology
nearly as dire as technology stock prices currently reflect.
easiest follows recovery simple spending technology
Any technology spending recovery follows a simple principle: things that are easiest to do without come back last,
anecdotal business closed evidence key postponed question whether
The key question is whether or not business that's not getting closed is representing postponed business or forgone business, ... The anecdotal evidence is indicating that business is probably postponed.
begging breaking clearly industries pace picks question represent tech whether
Clearly there are a lot of industries in tech that are just begging to be consolidated. So the question is not whether the pace of M&A picks up in 2005 but whether it will represent a breaking of the dam.
december either estimates growth higher looks negative period positive row saw third
It looks like we'll have the third period in a row where revisions to estimates are positive. And top-line growth rates, which were negative for a while, will be positive for the third period in a row and will be higher than we saw in either December or March.
brutal chose company example ibm lower missed number quarter results spending technology whose worse
The first quarter was so brutal for technology spending that even IBM missed the number and chose to lower the bar. But here you have an example of a company that's very big and whose results were not, in any respect, worse than expected.
applied capital evidence ibm improvement issues larger last month problems rest services slow tech today transfer
HP's problems with services are not uncommon. IBM has had issues like that, too, of late. The larger problem with tech today (Friday) and in the last month has been that improvement in semiconductor capital equipment, like Applied Materials, doesn't transfer over to the rest of the tech sector. While tech fundamentals are turning, the evidence of that has been slow coming.
activity bond companies equipment market money providers scared service signal spending start
Consolidation activity is actually a signal that service providers are scared and will start spending money again. Equipment companies are long-term beneficiaries of this and frankly, I think that's what the bond market is smelling out,
attractive bride groom neither nor
Neither bride nor groom is particularly young, attractive or reeking of potential.
basis capital companies cyclical fact faster good investing overall pace rate recover sound spending technology terribly
How these companies sound isn't a terribly good basis for investing right now, ... The fact is that in an incremental cyclical recovery, capital spending will recover at a brisker pace than the overall recovery, and technology spending will recover at a faster rate than capital spending.
days extremely season seven
Here we are seven days into the new quarter, and the pre-announcement season has been extremely mild,
boost delivered earnings financial momentum positive stocks tonight
On the surface, you'll see that the financial momentum delivered by the earnings tonight was more positive than not, and stocks should probably get a little boost off this.