Ben Simpfendorfer
Ben Simpfendorfer
definitely imports stories strength surprising weaker
There are two stories at work. The first is that we see surprising strength in exports. But imports are definitely weaker than I expected.
areas cities government growing investment money pace people pockets potential retail rising rural sales saving slower strongly trying
Consumption is still rising at a much slower pace than investment and people are still saving too much. Retail sales have been growing strongly in the cities but the government is trying to put more money into the pockets of rural areas which is where there's more potential for growth.
consumer demand driven export fourth growth investment moderation production quarter rising slower spending strong temporary weakness
Production growth is being driven by strong export demand and rising consumer spending at home. There will be some moderation in the fourth quarter because of slower investment growth and some temporary weakness in U.S. demand.
dollar flows portfolio seems support taiwan
Portfolio flows are very important for the Taiwan dollar. This support seems to have been removed and the Taiwan dollar is weakening.
chinese coming high level mainly momentum next quarter quite strength sustained
Momentum has been consolidated at quite a high level with strength coming mainly from mainland Chinese demand. This should be sustained through the first quarter of next year.
europe good relations
There is some self-interest in Europe maintaining good relations with China.