Bernard Baumohl
Bernard Baumohl
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There is a real sense of foreboding about the economy now that Katrina has struck with full force. This storm will be the most devastating ever for the U.S. oil and refining industries.
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If you take a snapshot of the economy right now, you could certainly say that we're in a sweet spot.
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On the other hand, Greenspan seems satisfied that his tightening has had a lasting effect. He's likely to stand pat for the rest of the year.
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It's fairly safe to say that the trade deficit may have peaked now that oil prices are falling and the U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down.
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The sharp pullback in economic growth during the final three months of 2005 shows the law of gravity has not been repealed. When consumers are burdened with heavy debt loads, rising interest rates, higher energy costs, no personal savings and household income growth that falls below inflation, something had to give. This retrenchment in spending was generally foreseen, though economists weren't sure on the timing and magnitude.
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Katrina has shaken the very foundations of the U.S. economic expansion when it ruined much of America's energy infrastructure, ... While a recession is unlikely, the probability of stagflation has greatly increased with inflation moving higher even as the economy slows.
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The economy is generating plenty of jobs -- that's good news.
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Our imports increase as long as the economy grows,
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The latest batch of economic news does not paint a very encouraging picture on the sustainability of consumer spending.
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The stress on household finances in coming weeks will be the greatest since the last recession in 2001,
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One has to wonder if another round of rate hikes will lead to a more severe cutback in consumer spending.
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People are going to be less inclined to drive to shopping centers. Instead, they're going to stay at home and if they carry on their usual holiday spending patterns then they will do it more likely online.
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Our imports increase as long as the economy grows. But there's certainly a concern that our exports are down despite the fact that Asian and European economies have begun to rebound. Maintaining the high deficit is dangerous because that means a huge debt, and if our creditors lose confidence in the U.S. economy and begin selling dollars, which drives down the value of the currency, that could spark a serious inflation threat.
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While the DOJ maintains long-standing, black-and-white parameters to seek out monopolies, the FCC tends to undertake a far more subjective and changeable analysis.