Bob Schnorbus
Bob Schnorbus
boost concern game gm hard impact incentives kicking pulling pushing screaming time whether
I think incentives have been a concern for some time now as they impact margins. With GM pushing hard on incentives to boost their volume, it's pulling everyone kicking and screaming into the game whether they like it or not.
test
March, in my view, will be interesting. It'll be the first real test of the new chairman.
seeing slowing sort
We're sort of seeing an orchestrated slowing of the economy. But what we're not seeing is a slamming on the brakes.
aggressive far february finish finished gm higher improvement january last market models month percent percentage points pricing pull retail sales several share slow somewhat unclear whether
GM's retail market share is off to a slow start, but should finish the month somewhat higher than its mid-month estimate. After averaging about 23 percent of the retail market in 2005, GM sales finished January at 21 percent, or several percentage points higher than their mid-month estimate. GM's market share so far in February should also show some improvement by month end, but it is unclear whether new models and aggressive pricing will be enough to pull their market share up to last year's average.
aggressive improvement last market models month pricing pull share unclear whether
GM's market share ... should also show some improvement by month end, but it is unclear whether new models and aggressive pricing will be enough to pull their market share up to last year's average.
bit expected kick offset quarter start strong weaker
If we get a big kick start to the quarter with a strong April, that could offset us being a bit weaker than we expected to be in the first quarter.
clearance earlier high incentives likely maybe move period rather simply sooner trial wait year
Simply put, if the '03 had high incentives earlier this year before the clearance started, then the '04 are likely to have it sooner rather than later. The automakers want to give the '04 a trial period to see how they move without incentives. But they won't wait long, maybe only a month.
low million rate sales third vehicles week
We had been projecting an (annual) sales rate of 16 million vehicles in September. If I take out a third of sales for only a two week period, you still come out with an eye-popping 13.3 million sales rate; 13.3 million is about as low as sales ever get.
caused drop gas inventory levels pickup prices rising
Dwindling 2005 inventory levels and rising gas prices have caused a significant drop in full-size SUV and pickup sales.
avoid compound decisions gloss hard might money needs problems short spending term turn
They might want to (pay more) in the short term to avoid a strike. But if they're spending money now to gloss over the hard decisions that Delphi needs to make, they're only going to compound their problems when their turn comes up.
consumers fuel importance stay weigh
Consumers are going to increasingly weigh the importance of fuel efficiency. But if they need, in their minds, an SUV, they are going to find a way to stay in that vehicle. They'll still look for big engines, towing capacity, cargo space.
high last lower problem sales
At least some of the problem is the artificially high sales last year, which is making this year's sales look a lot lower than they should.
current high incentive last levels obviously pressure price quite remain rise
The current incentive levels are not quite as high as they were at the end of last year. In the sense they have been higher, they probably could go up going forward. The price pressure are obviously going to remain very intense. But that said, they're not going to rise dramatically. They're already very good.
consensus discussion easily general pull pulling strong
The general consensus (on 2004 sales) is 17 million. If manufacturers come on strong with incentives, it'll easily be 17 million. If they pull back -- and there's been a lot of discussion of them pulling back -- it could be 16.5.