Bryan Piskorowski
Bryan Piskorowski
bring data forth forthright question side understand
We understand the manufacturing side is in a recession. The question is, Will the data bring forth a more forthright (aggressive) Fed?
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We're coming to grips with the reality that we had an economy that was cruising at 3.6 percent and is looking at 2.7 (percent) or below in the third-quarter as a revision. The question is how soft a landing are we going to get. A more conducive monetary policy would help the plight of stocks but we've got to see some data to support that notion.
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Selling on the news has been the mantra for second-quarter earnings season. What's more has been the bull's inability to piece together any kind of winning streak. With sustainability in question and anxiety abounding about tomorrow's (Thursday's) Employment Cost Index and Friday's second quarter GDP, few players are willing to step up to the plate today.
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Clearly, with GDP cruising at 5.6 percent, our economy is definitely steaming along, and that's got the Fed worried. And the question is, going forward: What do we see at the June meeting? Do we see another 50 basis points?
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That kind of capitulatory downside will lead to bounces, but the question is sustainability and follow-through. That's something the market has been unable to demonstrate any credibility in doing so over the last three months.
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It's been a disastrous week and we're just limping along here -- ultimately we're in a profit recession and the question is how long will that linger, which is frustrating the plight of equities. In the bigger picture you have a market that is clearly unhappy, and that stems from the lack of visibility.
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Also, global concerns have pushed money to the sidelines and it has remained there. As you move into 2003, the question becomes: Can the consumer hold on until we have corporate America pick up the torch and begin spending.
fairly healthy profit run taking week
I think a week of profit taking is fairly healthy after the kind of run we've seen.
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I still think it's a relatively fertile investing environment. There are better roads ahead and the market is generally going to try to consolidate and deal with a slowing economy.
bottom consensus numbers seem trying undermine
We keep trying to see a consensus for when things will bottom out. But then we keep getting these numbers that would seem to undermine that.
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We don't need a cause and effect here. We have bear psychology gripping the market so there's general apathy toward taking positions -- rallies are viewed as short-lived and trader-oriented.
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You have nobody willing to be a hero here -- it's hard for people to step up to the plate. Trade over the past two sessions has been very speculative. If you removed Iraq, you'd probably have a market that was doing OK.
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We are in a bit of a news vacuum as we wait for the deluge of corporate earnings reports.
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We're hoping for the 'bad news is good news' syndrome -- that we will continue to see signs of a slowing economy and that will make the Fed more accommodating.