Carl Tannenbaum
Carl Tannenbaum
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The pool of available labor is diminishing and worker efficiency is growing more slowly. This adds up to a higher level of pressure on wages, and, by inference, on inflation.
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While auto sales make up a small share of GDP, they make up a big share of the change in GDP, ... As you see changes in the auto industry, it will contribute to headline economic growth numbers.
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Outside of Detroit -- and outside of the gulf region -- there are signs that the economy is still doing very well.
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Unfortunately, I don't think the news tomorrow morning will put smiles on any faces.
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We're trained to think that rapid growth after six years of expansion is finally going to kick prices up a little bit, but in fact they're going in the opposite direction,
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We've been able to achieve great things amid great challenges- including the stock market crash of 1987, the bursting of the stock bubble in 2000, two wars and the September 11, 2001, terror attacks. Alan Greenspan might be thought of as our most valuable economic player.
economy risk
If anything, we may be at risk for underestimating how well the economy will do this year.
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We're nowhere near the same economy as we were in the 1970s. We're more service-based. We're much more energy efficient.
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If they have to ring some inflation out of the system, the initial list of victims has to include housing markets. You have a risky period for consumers for the next six to eight months.
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We've given the auto industry steroids, and we might be looking at a period of withdrawal as auto companies wean themselves from these stimulants,
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Frankly, I think that's healthy. Property has gotten so expensive, maybe people are getting a little bit of sticker shock.
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There is short-term certainty and medium-term mystery for the Fed.
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With holiday sales looking a little better than expectations and the Purchasing Managers Index up when we were expecting a decline, it's clear that the fear that many had that we had slowed down too far is unwarranted.
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We seem to be continuing to defy these natural limits of the economic cycle and we should be able to push forward at a decent pace in the second half without risking inflation,