Cary Leahey
Cary Leahey
bullets clearly fired left worry
Clearly Greenspan's luster has dimmed, and there's this worry that he's fired a lot of bullets and the bullets he has left won't do any good.
combined election fed harder job pull trigger
That, combined with no job growth, makes it harder and harder for the Fed to pull the trigger in an election year.
consumer goods passed though wage
Even though the PPI has accelerated, it hasn't passed over to consumer goods prices, and it hasn't passed through into wage gains,
eyebrows inflation january kinds market raise report wage
These are the kinds of things that raise eyebrows at the Fed. The implication that this January report has for wage inflation is bothersome to the market and the Fed.
banking bond component consumer dropped expected fact gain housing increase market next offset orders paid prices related strength weakness year
The increase in orders is particularly welcome. The bond market may like the fact that the prices paid component dropped 11 points, reversing most of the big gain in November. Analysts are banking on strength in manufacturing next year to offset some of the expected weakness in housing related consumer demand.
bond business core fed inflation later market report sign took
The bond market took this report as a sign that core inflation may be bottoming and the Fed may still be in the tightening business later this year.
confidence fourth gives hang impressive percent plus quarter
It's an impressive number. It just gives you more confidence that you'll get 4.0 percent plus (increases) in the fourth quarter and you'll hang in there through the first.
asked bond care crazy data fed market question whether
The bond market doesn't really care about the payrolls data now because you're even getting the crazy question asked about whether the Fed can ease.
bet fed high late move summer
A Fed move in late summer is a high probability bet right now.
afraid companies eaten everybody front left nobody standing wants
Companies aren't afraid of being left in the dust; they're afraid that if they go first they'll be eaten by sharks, ... Everybody is standing in front of the turnstile, and nobody wants to go through.
certainly early impressive lowest since
It's certainly an impressive number, it's the lowest since early 2001.
central european fed feels half instead lean point shore toward unlike wants
I lean toward a half point instead of a quarter. The Fed wants to shore up confidence, to show that, unlike the European Central Bank, it feels your pain.
almost core decline deflation equally favorable fed inflation interest last might next notion raise rate rates reminds residual risks supports surprise week
You got a favorable surprise on the CPI. We had the first decline in the core rate in 21 years, ... It just reminds the Fed, which said last week that the risks of inflation and deflation were almost equally balanced, that you still have some very residual deflation risk. And it ... supports the notion that the Fed might not have to raise interest rates at all next year.
backed bit data economy lurking rates suggesting survey treading water
Yet another survey of the economy is suggesting sustainable strength. Rates backed up a little because of this report, but you're treading water a bit because of payrolls data lurking on Friday.