Charles Crane
Charles Crane
Charles Spencer Cranewas a businessman and politician in Hawaii...
certainly concerns cooler crew cycle diminished economic evidence few gone greenspan happened housing investors landing last prior raising rates seen soft starting stocks strongest weak weeks
Interestingly enough, the housing stocks have been on of the strongest sectors this week. I think what's happened is that these stocks were weak prior to where we are right now in the economic cycle because of concerns about Mr. Greenspan and crew raising rates still further. Those concerns have diminished. They haven't completely gone away, but they certainly have diminished in the last few weeks as we've seen more evidence of a cooler economy. Hence, you're starting to see investors say OK, we're probably cruising in for a soft landing and housing should do well in that.
broader bull doubt high market positive rose strong yesterday
If there's any doubt about this bull market's stamina, yesterday should have quieted some of those doubts. There was no news, positive or negative, in the marketplace. And yet the Dow rose to an all-time high and the broader market was strong as well.
enthusiasm expensive gloss good growth market overall seems supported technology value
The growth end seems expensive and the value end doesn't look good either. The overall market has been well supported by enthusiasm for technology but the gloss has been tarnished on the whole technology juggernaut.
bargain compelling concerned heard investors period stories time
I haven't heard any compelling stories to say that this is anything more than bargain hunting. We're in a period of time where investors are going to be concerned about second-quarter earnings, so I wouldn't extrapolate too much from this.
advice block bottom investor lottery market noise resist temptation
I think the advice to any investor is try to block out as much macro noise as you can but resist the temptation to think this is a market bottom -- it's a lottery ticket.
consensus consistent far government less scary seem statistics weaker
All of the government statistics have been far less scary than consensus expectations. (Retail sales) were weaker than anticipated and seem to be consistent with the tone.
continues gets greenspan hangover higher irony lead morning next odds rally severe summer vigorous whether wrestling
The irony of all this summer rally is that the more vigorous it gets the higher the odds are that Mr. Greenspan continues to tighten the screws. And whether that will then lead to a more severe hangover the next morning is what we're all wrestling with.
emotional prompt remains stretched value
As long as value remains stretched in the more speculative end of technology, anything that blemishes it will prompt an emotional sell-off.
cause earnings expect few negative surprises
Most analysts expect it to be a bumpy earnings season. A few negative surprises could cause a little indigestion for stocks.
benefits domino energy enjoy higher lead oil pack prices sector service tend
The sector that will lead the pack is energy. All energy prices are high. And as one domino falls, many other tend to follow. The oil service sector will enjoy the benefits of higher oil prices too.
address becomes beyond blunt earnings economy eye fed feels half hoping impact inflation interest market match ourselves rates rather second setting slowing starting supply trying wrestling
If the Fed is on the warpath with an eye to slowing the economy and trying to blunt inflation before it becomes a problem, by slowing the economy the Fed is hoping to address any imbalances between supply and demand, specifically for labor. It feels to me like the market is starting to look beyond the impact of the Fed and setting ourselves up for a second half where the wrestling match will not be between interest rates and valuations but rather between earnings and valuations.
behaved conditions downward earnings economy judged market period revised revision steadily worse
The market behaved worse than most anticipated going into this period because the conditions of the economy were worse than any of us judged it to be. Earnings were revised down steadily and that kind of downward revision was not tolerated well.
glasses lining months seemed silver
Every silver lining has a cloud. All the glasses that seemed half-full 12 months ago look half-empty now.
bias book couple looking market news next period point positive quieter sort summer suspect technology time
I think we could re-write the book a little bit. The other sort of traditional way of looking at the market is that you get a summer rally. And I suspect that we will get a positive bias to this market at some point in time over the next couple of months. However, I do think that you're probably in that quieter period for news and developments in the technology sector.