Chuck Hill
Chuck Hill
bit despite earnings fourth good growth highest less match negative peak percent pessimism quarter running seen since time
Overall, the quarter is going to be excellent. We think it will match the 23.6 percent earnings growth for the first quarter, which was the highest we'd seen since back in the fourth quarter of 1993. It's going to be a very good quarter for earnings despite all the pessimism here during the peak time of pre-announcements. But pre-announcements are running a little bit less negative than they usually do so I think it's a bit of an over-reaction.
forecast growth march minus percent technology
We forecast technology as a whole for 11 percent growth as of Jan. 2. As of March 20, it's at minus 7 percent.
earnings growth percent track
We still think we are on track to see earnings growth of 23 percent for the quarter.
decline estimate percent reporting
We're doing about what we expected. Going into the reporting season, the estimate were for a decline of 18 percent and we said we thought we'd end up about down 15 but may end up down 16.
add earnings estimates last number percent
Of the 59 percent of the S&P 500 that has reported, earnings are down 18.1 percent. If we add that number to estimates for the rest, we're down 22.2 percent from last year.
biggest concern difficult great guidance percent surprises third time
There were no great surprises and the biggest concern is the guidance going forward. We still think it's going to be a difficult time ? we're already down 8.3 percent for the third quarter.
deviation expected percent quarter
Any deviation from that 15 percent for the quarter is expected to be lower, not higher.
earnings estimates percent second third
The estimates are for earnings to be down 50 percent in the second quarter, 37 percent in the third quarter, and 12 percent in the fourth.
came last negative percent ton
Last year, 43 percent of the negative pre-announcements came after Jan. 1, so there will be a ton more.
beat definitely earnings fourth further maybe negative prospects somewhere
I think we'll probably end up somewhere around negative 4 or negative 5 percent. Some will probably beat expectations, but not many. Down earnings is definitely in the cards, and the prospects of maybe even down earnings further in the fourth quarter.
pain
I think there'll be more pain and suffering.
earnings growth heading market stock
We really thought growth would taper off heading into 2000 and it hasn't. It isn't going to be earnings that prick the stock market bubble.
beginning bit confession disturbing early expect higher negative normal normally number running somewhat
Well, it's still the beginning of the so-called confession season, but it is a little disturbing in that we're running somewhat higher than the normal number of pre-announcements that we would expect this early. And we're running a little bit more negative than we normally do at this early stage.
extremely good
You are going to have extremely good results.