Dan Niles
Dan Niles
believe call cents consensus double enable estimates good higher job lead levels margins operating several
We believe that Compaq also did a good job on the profitability front, which should enable operating margins to more than double from third-quarter levels ... this should lead to earnings-per-share at least several cents higher than the consensus First Call estimates of $0.16.
believe demand exceed fourth likely possibly quarter supply third
We believe that demand is now likely to exceed Intel's processor supply now through the third quarter and possibly into the fourth quarter.
market pc pricing share walked
Compaq walked away from PC market share when pricing was irrational.
bombed higher hurting intel kept low performance prices pricing products
In the past, Intel has had much higher performance products than AMD had, so they bombed prices on the low end, and kept pricing higher on the high end. This time, AMD's got as speedy processors as Intel does at the high end. There's nothing Intel can do. They can't bomb prices without hurting themselves.
half looks year
The back half of the year looks like it will be better than expected.
correction grew inability inventory october percent quarter reduce seen view worst
Cisco's inability to reduce its inventory after the October quarter when revenues grew 14 percent quarter over quarter and inventory grew by 59 percent quarter over quarter reaffirms our view that we have not yet seen the worst of the inventory correction for semiconductor suppliers.
encouraged given gross guidance last line margin next people quite surprised year
I'm surprised it was this good, quite honestly. And more importantly the guidance for next year on the gross margin line of 57 percent. I think people are going to be very encouraged given that's up pretty substantially from what they did this last year.
gives happen magnitude market miss move next pc pricing year
There could be a bloodbath in pricing in the first part of next year if they don't move inventories over the holidays. The magnitude of the miss gives you an idea of what's going to happen with the PC market next year.
believe booked intel loaded quarter seeing third
We believe that Intel is seeing the most front-end loaded third quarter in many years and is booked out for the quarter.
close half industry latter pcs people percent ready second sells stronger versus
We're getting to the latter half of the year. and typically, the industry sells close to 20 percent more PCs in the second half versus the first half. People are getting ready in anticipation of a much stronger second half of the year.
believe downside estimates negative pcs remain risk stock
We remain negative on PCs and semis and believe there is still downside risk to estimates and stock prices.