Dan Niles
Dan Niles
believe demand exceed fourth likely possibly quarter supply third
We believe that demand is now likely to exceed Intel's processor supply now through the third quarter and possibly into the fourth quarter.
believe call cents consensus double enable estimates good higher job lead levels margins operating several
We believe that Compaq also did a good job on the profitability front, which should enable operating margins to more than double from third-quarter levels ... this should lead to earnings-per-share at least several cents higher than the consensus First Call estimates of $0.16.
price seen war
For those who thought the price war was aggressive, you haven't seen anything yet.
market pc pricing share walked
Compaq walked away from PC market share when pricing was irrational.
bombed higher hurting intel kept low performance prices pricing products
In the past, Intel has had much higher performance products than AMD had, so they bombed prices on the low end, and kept pricing higher on the high end. This time, AMD's got as speedy processors as Intel does at the high end. There's nothing Intel can do. They can't bomb prices without hurting themselves.
encouraged given gross guidance last line margin next people quite surprised year
I'm surprised it was this good, quite honestly. And more importantly the guidance for next year on the gross margin line of 57 percent. I think people are going to be very encouraged given that's up pretty substantially from what they did this last year.
half looks year
The back half of the year looks like it will be better than expected.
correction grew inability inventory october percent quarter reduce seen view worst
Cisco's inability to reduce its inventory after the October quarter when revenues grew 14 percent quarter over quarter and inventory grew by 59 percent quarter over quarter reaffirms our view that we have not yet seen the worst of the inventory correction for semiconductor suppliers.
ahead business buying dying enterprise feeling fourth growth ibm obvious patterns people quarters ready stance systems third
Our stance has been in big enterprise applications, it was obvious that people were buying ahead to get their systems ready for Y2K. The mainframe business is a dying business, and our feeling was IBM would see it in the third and fourth quarters because the growth patterns weren't normal.
bottom economy guess rebound sit time
This economy is not going to rebound any time soon. To sit here and guess where the bottom is is a loser's bet.
continues data earliest expect general pickup point recovery spending stretch summer till
This is yet another data point that the general IT spending pickup continues to stretch out in time. We do not see a recovery till after the summer at the earliest and even then expect the recovery to be gradual.
declines growth offset price seeing strong unit
The unit growth is not so strong as to offset the price declines they're seeing in their chips.
fourth implies looking people range
Slightly, to my mind, implies 3- to 5-percent growth. I think most people were looking at the 7- to 8-percent range for the fourth quarter.
huge price quarter
There has been a huge run-up in price this quarter - unbelievable results.