Daniel Katzive
Daniel Katzive
action against assumed behavior break changed cover dollar dominate exclusion factors forced highs last level likely market near price week year
I think the break of the big level last week ... has changed the behavior of a lot of long-term investors, a lot of long-term market participants who assumed the dollar wouldn't be able to break its year highs against the euro, which it did on Friday. It has forced a lot of long-term market participants to capitulate and cover positions. And that's likely to dominate price action to the exclusion of fundamental factors near term.
australian continued dollars expense high morning strengthen zealand
The yen continued to strengthen this morning at the expense of high yielding currencies such as Australian and New Zealand dollars as well as the US dollar.
backdrop dollar global good growth needs remain
The dollar needs a good global growth backdrop to remain well supported.
aversion bit crude ease equity global helped markets moderate prices risk tone
The better tone in global equity markets as crude prices moderate a bit has helped ease risk aversion concerns, to the dollar's benefit.
adjustment dollar interest weakness week
There's more to the dollar weakness this week than just an adjustment in interest rates.
continued continuing currency dollar equity interest market rate respond shift tone work
The dollar is continuing to respond to the new shift in tone from the FOMC yesterday, and that has continued to work through, not only on the currency market but also on the interest rate and equity markets.
boost borrowers costs course currency funding lowest yield
It's got to be the yen. That is the currency with the lowest yield and borrowers can be comfortable that the BOJ is not going to significantly boost their funding costs over the course of the year.
begins coming data dollar economics likely renewed slow team
If US data begins to slow markedly in the coming weeks, as our US economics team suspects, the dollar is likely come under renewed pressure.
apparently continued higher move oil prices taken
Oil prices have continued to move higher and equities have apparently taken it badly.
average earnings fed growth headlines solid strength
Friday's solid US payrolls headlines and strength in average earnings growth have boosted Fed tightening expectations further.
continued dollar fed markets price reason staying strong
The reason the dollar is staying strong is because markets have continued to price in more Fed tightening.
canadian flows strength
We see strength in energy-related flows into the country, which underpins the Canadian dollar.
continues cycle dollar economies exposed fed key leave policy second structural suspect
We suspect that the end of the Fed tightening cycle as policy tightening continues in the key low-yield economies will leave the dollar increasingly exposed to structural vulnerabilities in the second quarter.
backdrop carry cut data good momentum neutral positions provide rebuilding trades
The data suggests the big momentum positions which had mirrored carry trades have now been cut back to much more neutral levels, which should provide a good backdrop for carry trade rebuilding in the new year.