Darrel Good
Darrel Good
concerns conditions consistent drought forecasts increases moderate parts plains severe southern summer weather yield
The persistence of moderate to severe drought conditions in parts of Illinois, Iowa, and much of the southern Plains increases concerns about yield potential. As usual, forecasts of summer weather conditions are not consistent at this time.
available average closely condition crop factors information judge judging lesson market monitor order planting pricing producers production provide ratings reports valuable weather weekly year yield
The market will closely monitor planting progress, weather and weather forecasts, and weekly crop condition reports as they become available in order to judge 2006 production prospects. These factors will also provide producers with valuable information for gauging new crop pricing opportunities. The lesson of a year ago is that the weekly crop condition ratings are very valuable in judging U.S. average yield prospects.
affect area available continue corn costs crops debate decisions increase magnitude plant production rising spring total
The magnitude of the increase will have implications for the total area available to plant the spring-seeded crops such as corn and soybeans. The debate about how rising production costs will affect corn and soybean acreage decisions will continue into the spring of the year.
anticipate appears billion calculate changed corn current domestic eventual forecast grain june less market marketing million next opportunity provide rate report stocks whether year
The June Grain Stocks report will provide the next opportunity to calculate the rate of domestic corn use. Whether or not these projections are changed in the upcoming report, the market appears to anticipate an eventual increase. Stocks of corn at the end of the current marketing year may be 100 to 125 million bushels less than the current forecast of 2.3 billion bushels.
advisory analysis crop earlier included minimum programs released results total year
A minimum of 23 advisory programs were included in the analysis each year. A total of 41 programs were included for at least one year. The results for 1995-2003 were released in earlier reports, while results for the 2004 crop year are new.
appears based current discourage increase large level prices
Based on current conditions, however, it appears that the soybean prices need to be at a level to discourage a large increase in U.S. acreage in 2006.
appears billion corn crop forecast implies market means obviously ration sensitive smaller stocks trading vice
A stocks-to-use ration of 8.8 percent, then, means 2006-07 year-ending stocks of 1.047 billion bushels, implying a crop of 9.966 billion bushels. That is, the market appears to be trading a 2006 corn crop that is 1.146 billion bushels, or 10.3 percent, smaller than the 2005 crop. That calculation is obviously sensitive to the forecast of use. A smaller forecast of use implies a smaller crop and vice versa.
accuracy accurate august forecast forecasts market measure period private regardless sensitive somewhat time
The forecasting comparisons for soybeans were somewhat sensitive to the measure of forecast accuracy considered. One measure showed that private market forecasts were more accurate than USDA forecasts for August regardless of the time period considered. Another measure showed just the opposite.
billion crop near produce trend yield
A trend yield near 150 bushels, then, would produce a 2006 crop of 10.92 billion bushels.
appears corn demand prospects stronger
At this juncture, it appears that U.S. corn consumption and demand prospects are stronger than prospects for U.S. soybeans.
factors market next production prospects south three
South American soybean production prospects will be one of the more important market factors for the next three months.
appearing forecasts impact larger largest prices production reactions recent similar somewhat
Similar to corn, USDA soybean production forecasts had the largest impact on soybean futures prices in August, with recent price reactions appearing somewhat larger than in the past.
appeared direction errors forecast size study trend
There appeared to be no trend in the size or direction of forecast errors over the study period.
exception intentions minnesota north unchanged widespread
Those intentions are widespread geographically, with the exception of Minnesota and North Dakota, where intentions are unchanged and up 240,000 acres, respectively.