David Beard
David Beard
David Beardis an Australian volleyball player, who twice competed for the Men's National Team at the Summer Olympics: Sydney 2000 and Athens 2004...
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Really, I expect the light volume to probably last until the Fed stops raising interest rates, and that will kind of depend on the economic outlook that we see, in terms of how much growth we have at the end of this interest-rate cycle. It really tells me that there is a lack of conviction from the buyers and a lack of conviction from the sellers, ... And it's somewhat psychological because people have their stocks, they're down, they don't want to sell them. And that's only been going on for, what, two or three months now? The real question is, after six or seven or eight months and stocks are still down -- will people start selling at that point? And maybe the volume picks up at that point.
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As long as the numbers are within expectations, it's going to be a win-win situation. If the economy is a little bit weaker than we think, that's good because that means the Fed will keep cutting. If the economic data is a little bit better than we think, that's good too because that means companies won't miss numbers.
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It brings added spirit to the team and it's a great experience to share your high school sports experiences with your only brother.
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It's important for undergraduate students to learn to write for real audiences doing real work, and not just for an instructor who is going to grade them. I'm excited that the university is interested in this kind of collaboration.
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I think the market is saying that the Dow has been flat for a year. If you look at the Nasdaq, it's up 40 percent year to year. And so the Nasdaq is going to correct probably quicker than the Dow, or the Dow will tread water, while the Nasdaq continues to come in.
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Earnings warnings are backward looking; economic data are forward looking. People want to look forward.
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On the other hand, people are living longer now. That is kind of the negative side. If people are living longer, these businesses won't grow all that fast.
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It's two-thirds of our economy, and we're making the bet that the consumer confidence is going to pull back,
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And then Lamar -- it's a billboard company. It's all in small markets. Their business has been turning and coming back and it's trading at 15 times free cash flow, ... We think it's worth $20 (per share) and can get taken up between $60 and $70 a share ... You're starting to see the rebound in advertising. The billboard business, for them, continues to be pretty steady and it's rebounding. So, it's more specific for Lamar but the industry is performing better.
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You're still seeing people like Compaq worried about the quarter so you're seeing more pressure on high multiple stocks. The market is still trying to find a bottom but selling on continued fears of warnings.
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I think we've anticipated that the economy's not getting worse, ... But in order to see the next leg up, we need to see a significant upturn in (2002 profit) numbers.
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The market opened down when people did a superficial analysis and saw that (HP) missed earnings. Once the conference call got going and you had a chance to read the press release, you got a different story. Hewlett's demand picture was good.
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You can see many companies have collapsed that never generated cash flow.
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We own a hospital stock. We own a couple of them, but our favorite is UHS. They're performing well. Admissions are up. Pricing is up and that stock's probably worth 30 percent higher,