David Jones
David Jones
Twentieth-century British Modernist poet and painter who is best remembered for his long poem "The Anathemata." His other works include "In Parenthesis" and "Cara Wallia Derelicta."
ProfessionPoet
Date of Birth1 November 1895
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I think there will be one more quarter-point hike and then the Fed will go on hold for the rest of the year.
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Without any question, the Fed is vastly different now in terms of openness and transparency. Greenspan's theme has been the more markets know, the better.
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When the Fed itself doesn't know what it is going to do after its next meeting, life becomes much harder for the forecasting community.
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We are headed to 5 percent almost certainly, but after that the Fed will pause because they will see enough evidence that economic growth is moderating.
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We know the average construction worker in America is 53. We also know that America's youth is not lining up to learn the skilled crafts. . . . If the federal government doesn't come up with a functional guest-worker program, we will have some problems, and not just in Arizona.
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Greenspan is going to have as much influence as anybody has ever had on this critically important decision, ... Politics of Money: The Fed Under Alan Greenspan.
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Nothing in these numbers would change the outlook for Fed policy, which is to tighten credit and to try to encourage market conditions that would slow growth to a more sustainable pace this year. The report leaves the Fed on track for a quarter-point hike in February, but there isn't the kind of urgency to warrant a 50 basis point hike.
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Clearly, the Fed is in the midst of a series of easing steps and is prepared to ease further if necessary to counter unstable financial market conditions or slower growth.
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That's significant. It's something the Fed will be watching closely to see if that pipeline will spill over into finished goods prices.
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It is understandable that a new Fed chairman would want to prove his inflation-fighting mettle right away, but I think there is a danger that housing is more vulnerable than people realize.
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These numbers suggest the Fed is not done tightening for this cycle, if not in August, then later in the year,
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The Fed chairmanship is not the kind of job where you want to surprise everyone with your choice of a total unknown. You don't want to surprise Wall Street.
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I think actually the Clinton presidency is going to be hurt enough so that he is going to have more trouble coming through with that contribution to the IMF.
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It has been a great story -- strong growth and no inflation and low interest rates, but my bet is that one area that will be a little bit of a challenge to stocks will over time be interest rates.