David Joy
David Joy
falling inflation next pressure prices reason rising year
Part of the reason we see inflation rising next year is the dollar. Clearly, there is upward pressure on prices because of the falling dollar.
assumes bit fed language market might raises situation
You might have a situation where the Fed raises rates, modifies the language a little bit but intends to keep on going. If the market assumes that it's one more and done that might be a misread.
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Some of the tax proposals that are part of the Democratic platform do call for the rollback of dividend tax cuts. That has a direct impact on the stock market.
keen partner process resolved soon
The upshot of the process is that one partner will be left. We're keen to get it resolved as soon as possible.
disconnect growth headline health individual numbers perception relative seems wide
There seems to be a wide disconnect between the headline growth numbers and individual perception about the relative health of the economy.
burst coming early expect last pattern quite recession tech witnessed
In the early 1990s, we were coming out of a recession and you typically expect a burst of tech spending. That's what we witnessed last year. That pattern is quite analogous.
consumer fed financial mounting perception pressures raising stocks vulnerable
Stocks in the financial and consumer discretionary sectors look particularly vulnerable as the perception is that inflationary pressures will keep mounting and the Fed is not done with raising rates.
bloom clearly companies dollar factor far numbers relative rose sales strength tech
Clearly the far more important factor for tech is the relative strength of the economy. It trumps the dollar situation. But if the dollar improves, it does take the bloom off the rose for some of the sales numbers that companies have reported.
string
We'll see if Goldman can keep that string going.
hurricane
We'll see what impact, if anything, the hurricane had on them, and it may be a harbinger.
consumers energy high higher lost oil pay prices though
The persistence of high oil prices can't be lost on the Fed. Consumers have to pay for higher energy even though it's volatile. It is a real cost.
affected costs either fact fought higher impacts interest markets offset rates result rise
The fact that long-term rates didn't rise in some sense offset some of the impacts of the higher costs of energy. They fought to a draw, and as a result the markets weren't affected by either interest rates or energy.