David Kelly
David Kelly
Late Irish actor who audiences remember for playing Grandpa Joe on Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. He gained additional fame for his roles in Walking Ned, Stardust, Into the West, and The Jigsaw Man.
ProfessionMovie Actor
Date of Birth11 July 1929
auto consistent dropped economy fall growing january reason second spending tells third
The reason spending dropped in January was a big fall in auto sales. I don't think this tells us much that's new -- it's consistent with an economy still growing in second or third gear.
few generally growth months quarter saw strong takes third turns
It generally takes a few months after GDP growth such as we saw in the third quarter before that turns into strong growth in employment.
close recovery strong
I think the recovery is too strong to be a jobless recovery. But it is a close call.
begin companies costs economic few growth increase increasing labor move next orders output push rate saw strongly total unless
We saw companies push up output strongly without increasing labor costs at all. As orders come in, they will have to increase their total employment. Unless economic growth slows very rapidly, the unemployment rate should begin to move down in the next few months.
close ending fed few past remarkable statement
What's remarkable is how little the statement changed. The one thing that is important is that the Fed has always, over the past few years, tipped its hand. But they have still not indicated that they are close to ending their tightening.
changes cusp economic generally growth happens job second year
What generally happens is, during the first year of economic expansion, we see more productivity growth than job growth, and that changes as you go into the second year. We may be on the cusp of that.
changed labor last minimum number recovery surprising today waiting words
Nothing about what they said today is surprising -- they changed the minimum number of words (from their last statement). We're still waiting for confirmation (of a recovery in) the labor market.
area biggest exactly grew investment spending start worried
One of the biggest upward revisions was to investment spending on equipment, exactly the area we're worried about, ... That grew marginally, and that's the start of something.
clear concern determined deviation economy fed inflation measured minutes reflect seem
One thing that's clear is that the Fed is determined to still seem balanced. The minutes will reflect a little more inflation concern and a little more concern about the economy but no deviation from the measured pace.
close closest harder miles outside owners pressure sell tampa
There's more and more pressure on campground owners to sell to developers. It's getting harder to find a campground close by. The closest campground to Tampa is about 10 miles outside of town.
changes fed minutes reading view
Reading the minutes carefully, I don't think it really changes my view or the market's view of where the Fed was.
add business consumers fourth pull quite rebuilding shift spending
Even if consumers pull back a bit, just rebuilding those inventories will add a lot of growth. We will see a shift to business spending from consumer spending in the fourth quarter, and when that occurs, it will be quite healthy.
decent economy elevated employment gains growth prevent quarters rate replay start strong third
This elevated growth rate in the economy should prevent a replay of the jobless recovery. If we have two strong quarters of growth, then employment will start to show decent gains in the third quarter.
laid people replace
In many cases, people who've been laid off in manufacturing should not look to manufacturing to replace their jobs. It's not going to happen.