David Wyss
David Wyss
David Wyss is an American economist. As New York-based Standard & Poor's chief economist, Wyss was responsible for S & P's economic forecasts and publications. He also coauthored the monthly Equity Insight and the weekly Financial Notes. He was on the board of the National Association for Business Economics, Washington, D.C...
paying people
It's the '90s all over again. New technology, it's exciting, people think it's going to the sky, and people are paying accordingly.
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Back when the program was created, elderly people were dying because they had nothing to eat and no health care. Social Security has been incredibly successful at virtually eliminating poverty among the elderly.
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The economy is living with it, and corporations are turning in strong profits despite high energy costs. People forget that energy isn't as big a part of the economy as it was 25 years ago.
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People see energy prices going up and they get a little worried about what they can afford to spend money on.
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Because they've got the employment, the people go there. It's a virtuous circle. It works in the right direction.
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I don't know whether he's going to have much input, but it would shock me if he didn't have some. He's talking to the people at the board who are writing this stuff and making sure that things look sensible -- something that he can live with.
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Even a Chrysler has some imported parts in it and because these Toyotas are a little more expensive, Ford might be charging more.
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The Fed doesn't like to switch policy very quickly. Unless something goes wrong, I think they are going to stop (after the March move) and hold rates there for an extended period.
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In Japan's case, back in 2003-2004, they feared the yen would drop too much in value and they intervened heavily in the currency markets. Then, Japan ceased intervening over the last year or so -- but this didn't have much of a negative impact on U.S. markets.
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They have to accumulate dollars to keep the yuan down relative to the dollar. But since China has moved to peg the yuan to a market basket of currencies, instead of just the dollar, it's logical for them move their foreign exchange holdings to the same basket.
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The geopolitical tensions are affecting people. They're not happy with Washington and when they're not happy about Washington, it ends up making them not happy about the economy.
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Other than autos, the rest of consumer spending is doing OK.
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I don't think there's any cliff you suddenly walk off. I'm not going to worry about a recession until we get up to $100 a barrel.
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It looks sort of in line with expectations, with some strength -- for example a rebound in communications and machinery, but also some disturbing continued weakness in the computer sector.