Diane Swonk
Diane Swonk
basis fed given good hesitate insurance policy question reason spend
There's no question that, given the right circumstances, the Fed wouldn't hesitate to spend 175 basis points. But they really have to have a good reason to put an insurance policy out there.
demand fed inflation looking oil policy subtle
They're now looking at the demand trade-off on oil prices, not just the inflation trade-off, which will make Fed policy much more complicated. It's a subtle but important change.
burned careful political slam
(Bush) has got to be even more careful today. He has burned through a lot of political capital. He's got to put someone in who is going to be a slam dunk.
adds economic feels paper people sharing
It adds up on paper to look a lot better than what it feels to people, ... not as many people are sharing in the economic gains.
bit burden carry economy feet keeping kick
kick back, put up his feet for a bit and not have to carry the burden of keeping the economy going alone.
beyond deadline december encourage event flight major moment point radar seems
I think it does encourage flight to quality, temporarily, but actually I think once we get beyond this point, there is a deadline here, ... December 12th is a deadline out there looming not very long away, and I think that once we get beyond that point we really will see this as little more than a blip in the radar screen, as much as it seems like a major event in the moment for the markets. But it's not part of the fundamental economy.
abundant broad brought consumers early extremely finally holiday left less means ordered overly promotions retailers seen shelves
Retailers ordered extremely conservatively for the holiday season. The shelves aren't overly abundant with goods, and controlling inventories has finally made it into broad retailers, not just Wal-Mart. That's important because it means a lot of the early promotions we've seen have brought the consumers in, but has left less on the shelves with less selection.
adding certainty chaotic
It's all part of adding certainty in a chaotic situation.
balanced chance decision include interest move pat recession risks standing talk terms
It will be very interesting to see Fed's decision today, which may include them standing pat in terms of no move on interest rates, and there is chance here they will now talk about risks being balanced between recession and recovery,
christmas far market seen tired
I think the market is tired of Christmas. We've already seen the Christmas reports. As far as the market is concerned, that's old news.
cold consumers early relatively sales snap spending strong suggesting vehicle winter
It's all vehicle sales and gas. Chain-store sales were relatively strong during the month, suggesting consumers diverted their vehicle spending to other sectors. We also had a cold snap which prompted early spending on winter wear.
closely goes latter longer push resembles saw
The longer this goes on ... the more closely it resembles the inflationary push that we saw in the latter part of the 1960s.
falling fed light reason sit soft
The Fed will sit on its hands. There's really no reason to do otherwise. The economy's falling into place as the Fed thought -- it's in a soft spot, with some light at the end of the tunnel.
economic faced kinds rule thrown
He has faced many different kinds of economic environments. He has thrown away any kind of rule of thumb.