Eric Lascelles
Eric Lascelles
came confidence flip michigan price producer university weak
We did have a weak University of Michigan confidence index ... but on the flip side, you had the producer price index, which came in a little strong.
appears business conditions continued light likely sector sour survey trend
The manufacturing sector continued to struggle. And in light of the sour business conditions survey ... that trend appears likely to continue.
cautious expected hike intent looking rate vein
The intent of that, in my view, is to say they are very cautious about looking forward. A rate hike should not be expected in the same vein that one was expected for today.
arising bank canada certainly concerned continues pressures suggest
(The survey) certainly continues to suggest that the Bank of Canada need not be concerned about inflationary pressures arising from manufacturers.
dollar obvious seem
It does look like a U.S. dollar story. There doesn't seem to be any obvious fundamental story.
bank canada cause differ likely peak percent
I don't think this is going to cause the Bank of Canada to differ in its ways. We still think 4 percent (overnight rate) is the likely peak for them.
commodity
The commodity play is a big part of the story there.
certainly election impact minority
I don't think there has been much of an impact at all from the election because, certainly a minority was expected, a minority was the outcome.
anyway bank beyond canada hand inflation less market move moves surprise
Inflation isn't out of hand anyway in Canada. The market may think the Bank of Canada will move less aggressively. It will be a surprise if the bank moves beyond 4 percent.
auto few hesitant last mind quite sales shipments tend wildly
Keep in mind that auto shipments and sales tend to be quite volatile. They've been really going up and down pretty wildly over the last few months, and so I'd be hesitant to read too much into any one reading.
action certainly monetary picture policy supportive underlying
Basically, it's the same underlying picture and certainly supportive of the monetary policy action they've been undertaking.
notable word
The most notable (change) is the insertion of the word 'modest.' And that's been interpreted in a dovish fashion.
business canada continues grow moderate sector
The business sector in Canada continues to grow at a moderate pace.
argue canadian cent conditions dollar facing fairly far people perhaps reflective somewhere suspect true type valued
Most people would argue the Canadian dollar is fairly valued somewhere in the 80-85 U.S. cent range, and we're not far from that. So I suspect the conditions manufacturers are facing right now are perhaps more reflective of the true long-term type of conditions they should expect.