Frank Nothaft
Frank Nothaft
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Long-term mortgage rates will more than likely rise over the next few months, albeit modestly compared to shorter-term rates.
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Mortgage rates remained fairly stable this week as the financial markets tried to discern just how quickly the economy is growing and how sustainable that growth will be.
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The strength in employment growth and an unexpected jump in consumer credit in January helped push mortgage rates a little higher this week. While long-term interest rates are at the highest level since May of 1998, they are still very affordable, particularly when compared to the 1970s and 1980s.
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The escalating tensions within the U.N. over the impending resolution on Iraq and dismal economic news this week sent the stock market tumbling and with it went bond and mortgage rates. The high volatility is likely to remain for a while. But since there are no upward pressures at the moment, any sustained rise in rates in highly unlikely.
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Low rates combined with the up-tick in consumer confidence are strong indications that the housing market will continue to prosper into the summer months,
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Currently the market is focusing on an anticipated economic recovery within the next six months. That focus put some upward pressure on mortgage rates this week, causing them to rise. There remains good volatility though, due to market speculation over exactly when and how strong the rebound will be.
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Mortgage rates continued to set records. Interest rates remain the lowest in Freddie Mac history; indeed, they are the lowest we have seen since 1967.
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Anticipation that the Federal Reserve may well cut rates at its next meeting, combined with further weakness in certain sectors of the economy, caused interest rates to fall again.
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Financial markets are feeling more confident that the Fed will not raise rates any time soon. Add to that the fact that recent economic data shows core inflation is less than the market expects, and we see mortgage rates drop once again.
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It was no great surprise that housing starts rose for the second time in three months since mortgage rates in November reached levels not seen since the mid-1960s. Since mortgage rates are not expected to increase significantly, we remain confident that the housing industry will continue to be alive and active well into 2003.
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As the economy continues to show signs that the recession is ending, the housing market continues to expand thanks, in large part, to current low mortgage rates. And as long as inflation is not an issue in the economy, lending rates should remain around 7 percent.
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There's about $6 trillion in single-family mortgage debt outstanding, and total home value is about $13 trillion, which means there's about $7 trillion in home equity outstanding. Last year was a big year for liquefying home equity -- about $100 billion. That's a drop in the bucket compared to $7 trillion.
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Following the onset of the Iraqi conflict, financial markets seem to have an upward bias for mortgage rates. However, that's not to say that uncertainty has diminished in any large way, but that it has shifted to a different set of unknowns.
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As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter. To put this in perspective, this would compare to 17 percent of real GDP growth over all of 2004.