Gary Schlossberg
Gary Schlossberg
bit clearly easing economy fact fed following given last late pull ready steep trigger
Given the fact the economy is doing a bit better following the steep slowdown late last year, the Fed is not ready to pull the trigger right away. But clearly the Fed is not done with easing just yet.
holding market
That may be holding the market back a bit.
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There's some caution ahead of Greenspan. The market is looking for soothing words, such as growth is moderating and inflation is not a problem.
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It's not going to affect monetary policy. The Fed is forward looking. The change is at the low end of expectations. At the margins, it may affect investors by refocusing on inflation. They are already concerned about oil prices.
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The yield curve has narrowed. Some money market funds are now yielding more than 4%. At that rate, they're competitive with both short- and long-term bond funds.
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The Fed is keeping an eye on core inflation because they were concerned about prices spilling over from energy and commodities to the rest of the economy. This increases the odds that interest rate increases can remain measured, a quarter-point at a time.
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Someone also forgot to tell Provo that the boom in technology ended in the 90s. That growth in technology is still continuing in Provo, and it's reflected in Micron's recent joint venture with Intel and the hundreds of jobs to be created over the next year or two.
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While the report does not make it a certainty, it increases the probability that the Fed will leave policy unchanged.
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We're seeing evidence of Utah households responding to higher fuel costs by driving less, heating less, and being more efficient. And if oil prices stay high, we should also see more enduring efforts to explore alternatives, like tar sands and oil shale.