Gavin Friend
Gavin Friend
expecting help increases next rate
We're expecting just two rate increases by the end of next year. That's not enough to help the euro.
absolute based bet canada currency higher oil performer pick rates strong
Absolute rates are still higher in Canada and it's a very strong performer when commodities are booming. It would be my pick for the currency to bet on based on higher oil prices, even more so than Norway.
dollar far fed further market measured push remove risk sentence
I don't think the market will push far before the Fed statement. If they remove the sentence implying some further measured tightening then the dollar is at risk.
commitment dollar expect fighting higher hold inflation move next relatively trigger
Most of us expect him to reiterate the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation and as long as he does that the dollar should hold up relatively well. This could be the trigger for the next move higher in the dollar.
forecasts further growth hikes inflation line opportunity raising rate remains window
The hike... was in line with expectations, but by raising inflation and growth forecasts for 2006/2007, the window of opportunity for further rate hikes remains open.
confirmed dollar inclined market meeting might square
If these expectations are not at least confirmed by the meeting minutes, market participants might feel inclined to square their dollar longs.
area data resistance risk test today trading weaker
There is a risk today (Thursday) of euro/dollar trading weaker and of a test of the resistance area around 1.2200/1.2170 dollars, particularly if the US data is better than expected.