Gina Martin
Gina Martin
bias far fed inflation measured rather seems slow towards worries worrying
If anything, this confirms the Fed's bias towards inflation rather than worrying about a slow down in growth. The Fed seems to have no worries about growth, as least as far as manufacturing is measured by ISM.
confidence consumer critical readings
I think it is a critical number. It's one of the first readings we get on consumer confidence post-Katrina.
claims creation job labor market range underlying
The underlying labor market is probably about the same, with claims in the 300,000 to 320,000 range and job creation of 180,000 to 200,000 a month.
elevated family increase interest likely remain single starts term until
Single family starts will likely remain elevated until we see a significant increase in long term interest rates.
blowing holiday likely moderate modest season
The 2002 holiday season will likely be a moderate one, not blowing away modest expectations, but not disappointing them either.
affecting biggest consumer consumers determine due everybody face far fed forecasts forward greater higher housing interest item next price rates retailers slowing trading wants watching week worth year
The biggest item affecting trading next week will be the consumer price index, because everybody wants to determine how far the Fed will go. And the forward forecasts of the retailers are worth watching as well, because consumers are going to face greater constraints this year due to higher interest rates and a slowing housing market.
consumers continue equity expect funds home interest less likely mortgage pace prices rates rise rising slower source year
We expect interest rates to continue rising and home prices to rise at a slower pace in the year ahead. This combination makes withdrawal of mortgage equity a less likely source of funds for consumers in the future.
bring fill group help pick until
We're going to fill up all of our buses, and hopefully, we'll bring them up and if we have to go back down there and pick up another group of people, we'll just keep going until they don't need our help anymore.
basically bigger guessing normally stretch
We're basically guessing how the BLS adjusts for Katrina, which is an even bigger stretch than we normally have to do.
bigger breaking change great month records
We're consistently breaking records with this report, and just about every month is bigger than expected, so I don't think there's any great change to the story.