Himanshu Patel
Himanshu Patel
assist care extract gm health likely opportunity risk
We think GM will see it as more of an opportunity than a risk to assist in a Delphi bailout, as it will likely be able to extract sizable UAW health care concessions in return,
expect ford gm notable pickup segment share
We expect GM to take notable share from Ford in the full-size pickup segment in 2006 and, particularly, in 2007.
bringing cap caps forcing forth gm inflation issue management similar suggest talks top
By forcing a health-care inflation cap for salaried workers, GM is bringing forth the issue of similar caps for hourly workers, which our talks with (GM) management suggest is a top priority.
aggressive continue cycle due favour ford gm product
That said, we continue to favour GM over Ford due to the former's more favourable 2006 product cycle and its more aggressive restructuring approach.
aggressive continue cycle due favor favorable ford gm product
That said, we continue to favor GM over Ford due to the former's more favorable 2006 product cycle and its more aggressive restructuring approach.
affected estimate lost million plants production remain
We estimate production at the affected plants is around 1 million units annually, indicating around 4,300 units of lost production for every day these plants remain down.
aggressive believe benefit content continue cost diverse growth per safety
We continue to believe TRW should benefit from growth in safety content per vehicle, its diverse content profile, and aggressive cost management.
beat britain expecting fairly forecasts france guidance holding key markets reaffirm reasonably share upbeat
We are expecting PSA to beat their forecasts and to reaffirm fairly upbeat guidance for 2003. Their key markets of Britain and France are holding up well and their market share is reasonably healthy.
accounting change concerns internal issues none raise thesis
While none of these issues are enough to change our thesis on GM, they do raise our concerns on the company's internal accounting controls.
admittedly ahead given performance potential recent reluctant weak
While fundamentals are admittedly weak, given the stock's weak recent performance, we are reluctant to get incrementally bearish, particularly ahead of a potential restructuring announcement.
announced company further future given guided magnitude production quarter risk schedules surprised weak
We are not that surprised that the company guided down for the first quarter given their previously announced weak production schedules. However, we are surprised by the magnitude of the first-quarter and 2005 revision, which suggests the further risk to production schedules in future periods.
cannot timing
timing of this pending divestiture cannot be overlooked.
both expecting exposure fairly french home limited partly robust safer thanks
We're expecting both of them to do well. The French carmakers are safer than the Germans, partly because they have limited U.S. exposure and partly thanks to a fairly robust home market.
consensus downside risk upside
We still see more downside than upside risk to 2007 consensus earnings.