Holger Schmieding
Holger Schmieding
Holger Schmiedingis a German economist, the current Chief Economist at Berenberg Bank based at their London officeand a frequent broadcaster and commentator on economic affairs in the media. Before joining Berenberg, he was a Senior Economic Advisor to the International Monetary Fund, a Senior Strategist at the Bank of America and worked for Merrill Lynch, based in Washington D.C., London and Frankfurt. The Financial Times Deutschland placed him at the top of the list of 50 analysts for the proven...
bank chance cutting reasonable
There is a reasonable chance of the bank cutting rates.
anecdotal cards christmas confidence consumer credit data estate evidence further indicate market modest point rebound reluctance remains weak weakness
The evidence on U.K. consumption remains contradictory. Some data such as weak consumer confidence and the reluctance to use credit cards point to further weakness ahead. However, the modest rebound in the real estate market and anecdotal evidence of satisfactory Christmas indicate a modest strengthening in spending.
precise provide statement thursday vital
Still, the precise wording of the ECB statement on Thursday could provide some vital clues.
dislike hike
I dislike the VAT hike tremendously, I don't think it's necessary.
attained bank boom clearly cool early economic explosive fueled house late rates rise
The bank hiked rates aggressively in late 2003 and early 2004 to cool down an economic boom fueled by an explosive rise in house prices, and clearly attained that goal.
creation distorted economic figures proof work
The figures are not proof yet of an economic slowdown as they are being distorted by cutbacks in work creation programs.
adequate beyond call expect fed inflation interest level modest neutral percent rates risks slightly
We think around 4.5 percent is the adequate level for U.S. interest rates -- you could call it a neutral level -- and as there are modest inflation risks in the U.S., we expect the Fed to go slightly beyond that to 4.75.