Howard Archer
Howard Archer
demand domestic fourth goods imports month oil rose successive suggesting surprised uk upside
UK imports of goods excluding oil ... rose for a fourth successive month in February, and by substantial 4.5 percent, suggesting that domestic demand may have surprised on the upside in the first quarter.
borne case christmas consumer cut early emerging hard healthy interest picture rate reasonably seems spending underlying
The underlying picture that seems to be emerging is that consumer spending will be reasonably healthy over the Christmas period. If borne out by hard data, this dilutes the case for an interest rate cut early in the New Year.
domestic euro fragile hanging marks question relatively strength
The euro zone's upturn is still young and relatively fragile with significant question marks still hanging over the long-term strength of domestic demand.
bank decline england interest leaving output rates sway unchanged unlikely
The disappointing decline in manufacturing output is most unlikely to sway the Bank of England from leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
conclusive evidence pay remaining sustained
The MPC still has to see conclusive sustained evidence that 2006 pay settlements are remaining contained.
boost europe feed growth hoping improving recent signs sustained uk western
Going forward, UK exporters will be fervently hoping that recent signs of improving growth in Western Europe will be sustained and will increasingly feed through to boost exports,
below data features headline positive
Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.
consumer equity mortgage peak reduced since spending weighed
The markedly reduced mortgage equity withdrawal since its fourth-quarter 2003 peak has undoubtedly weighed down significantly on consumer spending since mid-2004.
accelerate basis believe buyer doubtful floor higher highly house interest keeping likely move prices remain soon start sustained thereby time
This is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we remain highly doubtful that house prices will move substantially higher on a sustained basis any time soon. If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.
boosts clear coming december demand domestic economic hopes improvement kick months sentiment support
The clear improvement in economic sentiment in December boosts hopes that domestic demand will increasingly kick in over the coming months to support growth.
appears chain contain continuing effects energy high oil pressures round second street strong supply
It appears that strong competitive pressures on the high street and through the supply chain are continuing to contain any second round inflationary effects of high oil and energy prices.
activity adds annual buyer cent climb degree evidence house housing increased inflation limited low market november october per price prices recent recently reported stronger
The climb in annual house price inflation to 2.5 per cent in November from a nine-year low of 1.8 per cent in October reported by the ODPM adds to the recent evidence that house prices have firmed to a limited degree recently amid stronger housing market activity and increased buyer interest.
appears boost needed sales
It appears that significant discounting is still needed to boost sales volumes.
budget economic key low seems terms
In economic terms at least, Wednesday's budget seems set to be a very low key affair.