Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
causing fairly investor issues market stock
Fundamentally, I think the stock market is fairly valued, but there are a lot of issues around that are causing investor concern.
dangerous fed growth holding interest market risky spite stocks value view
I don't view the market as risky or dangerous even in spite of more Fed tightening. We have enough value in U.S. and international growth stocks. What's holding stocks back right now is uncertainty about interest rates, not valuation.
backdrop inflation leading market nice subdued
Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today,
bond debate higher market oil prices restraint whether
There has been this continual debate as to whether higher oil prices are inflationary or a restraint on growth. This year, the bond market has signaled that it is inflationary.
bigger economy history impact improvement interest lazy looking market oil prices rates seeing services shown stock tick
The tick up in oil prices hurts, but history has shown that interest rates have a much bigger impact on the stock market than oil. And looking at the ISM services number, you're seeing the kind of gradual, lazy improvement in the economy that's not going to really get rates going.
basis market points raising rates shock
Raising rates by more than 25 basis points would shock the market so much that the Fed's credibility would vanish.
creating earnings engine environment market
Earnings are still the engine and the market is not overvalued, but the environment we are in is creating pressure.
behind bond chip continues economy economy-and-economics inflation market seem
The bond market is still behind the inflation curve. The inflation story continues to chip away at our economy and it doesn't seem to be getting any weaker.
bond derived fuel invest market move raise seems somewhat
It seems like the market is obsessing on this bond market fallout, which was somewhat precipitated by the move to raise (interest rates) in Japan. A lot of the fuel that has been used to invest in this bond market has been derived from 'easy money' in Japan.
bond market seems
It seems like the market is obsessing on this bond market fallout.
market quality shift starting
The market is starting to shift back to quality stocks.
believe clear conflict few holding issues market next pattern tied trend until
We can't believe any trend right now, until the issues tied to this conflict are resolved. Unfortunately, in this kind of market there's going to be no clear direction. We're going to be in this holding pattern for the next few weeks, at least.
certainly economic footing solid
We're certainly on solid footing on an economic front.
argue backward bit coming economy enthusiasm eventually evidence face maybe news slap today ugly woods
We have some very ugly numbers. You can argue that the ISM is still backward looking, and maybe even the jobless claims, but eventually we're going to need some evidence that the economy is improving. We had a lot of enthusiasm coming from earnings, but the news today is a little bit of a slap in the face that we're not out of the woods yet.