Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
dangerous fed growth holding interest market risky spite stocks value view
I don't view the market as risky or dangerous even in spite of more Fed tightening. We have enough value in U.S. and international growth stocks. What's holding stocks back right now is uncertainty about interest rates, not valuation.
backdrop inflation leading market nice subdued
Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today,
causing fairly investor issues market stock
Fundamentally, I think the stock market is fairly valued, but there are a lot of issues around that are causing investor concern.
bond market seems
It seems like the market is obsessing on this bond market fallout.
bond derived fuel invest market move raise seems somewhat
It seems like the market is obsessing on this bond market fallout, which was somewhat precipitated by the move to raise (interest rates) in Japan. A lot of the fuel that has been used to invest in this bond market has been derived from 'easy money' in Japan.
market quality shift starting
The market is starting to shift back to quality stocks.
basis market points raising rates shock
Raising rates by more than 25 basis points would shock the market so much that the Fed's credibility would vanish.
creating earnings engine environment market
Earnings are still the engine and the market is not overvalued, but the environment we are in is creating pressure.
bigger economy history impact improvement interest lazy looking market oil prices rates seeing services shown stock tick
The tick up in oil prices hurts, but history has shown that interest rates have a much bigger impact on the stock market than oil. And looking at the ISM services number, you're seeing the kind of gradual, lazy improvement in the economy that's not going to really get rates going.
assumes fed future hikes inflation lays next pace people percentage pivotal quarter raise rates reports statement thinking
The world assumes the Fed will raise the rates by a quarter percentage point, that's a non-event. It's what the statement lays out about the pace of future rate hikes that will be important, because that's what people are thinking about. I think the inflation reports will also be pivotal next week.
caps good inflation investors perfect rally report seems strong wall year
Investors have their rally caps on for year end, and we're doing it with speculation. With a good inflation report and strong growth, it seems to be the perfect elixir for Wall Street.
bets jobs pause percent
If there is anything more than 250,000 jobs then everything reverses and all bets about a pause at 3.25 percent are off,
ground losing perspective pressure upgrade
The GDP upgrade could put more pressure on the Fed. At the same time, we're losing ground with the consumer... From the perspective of today's market, it's a one-two punch.
backdrop creating fed four interest last low played
Over the last four years the Fed has played the part of a surrealistic painter, creating a dreamy backdrop with generously low interest rates.