James Padinha
James Padinha
happiness happy markets seems
It seems to me that markets aren't going to be too happy if its just a replacement thing.
accepting becoming data economic gradual great growth hit indicate last markets numbers pan people round whereas
People are becoming more accepting of a slow, gradual recovery, whereas last year, they had great growth numbers in mind, and when that didn't pan out, markets got hit hard. As long as data don't indicate a new round of fundamental economic deterioration, we're still on the same growth track.
excesses expect waiting
It's really just a waiting game. You can't expect excesses to be done correcting just because you want them to be done correcting.
arguing happen people third
People aren't arguing about the third quarter, they're arguing about what is going to happen now.
ease economy ended eventually excesses fed hikes impact kinds point rate
Once the excesses got to the point where the Fed had to do something about them, the kinds of rate hikes we eventually did see had an outsized impact on the economy -- which ended up tanking, and then the Fed had to ease drastically.
clients cut expecting fed half happens numbers print
I'm expecting Friday's numbers to print poorly. If that happens I will tell clients they should expect the Fed to cut by a half point.
case generally growth increases push revenue start stimulate tax
It's generally the case that if you push through tax cuts, over time, it will stimulate activity; and as growth accelerates, you'll start to get revenue increases back.
behaving buying car confidence declines guns house mind mortgage people second seeing seem sure taking trading truck
We've been seeing double-digit declines in confidence for more than a year, yet people don't mind buying a new car or a truck or trading up for a new house or taking out a second mortgage -- you would think these people have guns to their heads. We feel so lousy, but it sure doesn't seem like we're behaving that way.
clients consumer demand exhibit names plays prefer pricing strong time
What we tell clients all the time is that, when it comes to consumer names and goods, we always prefer plays that exhibit two factors: strong consumer demand and pricing power.