James Padinha
James Padinha
ease economy ended eventually excesses fed hikes impact kinds point rate
Once the excesses got to the point where the Fed had to do something about them, the kinds of rate hikes we eventually did see had an outsized impact on the economy -- which ended up tanking, and then the Fed had to ease drastically.
happiness happy markets seems
It seems to me that markets aren't going to be too happy if its just a replacement thing.
accepting becoming data economic gradual great growth hit indicate last markets numbers pan people round whereas
People are becoming more accepting of a slow, gradual recovery, whereas last year, they had great growth numbers in mind, and when that didn't pan out, markets got hit hard. As long as data don't indicate a new round of fundamental economic deterioration, we're still on the same growth track.
excesses expect waiting
It's really just a waiting game. You can't expect excesses to be done correcting just because you want them to be done correcting.
clients cut expecting fed half happens numbers print
I'm expecting Friday's numbers to print poorly. If that happens I will tell clients they should expect the Fed to cut by a half point.