Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
capacity capital continue exports highlights investment report struggling third
Exports are struggling to get traction. The monthly report highlights the capacity constraints in Australia. We need a lot more capital investment to alleviate the bottlenecks. Exports will continue to take away from GDP in the third quarter.
further interest provide rates reasons remain reports
These reports provide further reasons for interest rates to remain on hold.
advantage australian continue interest narrow weigh
The interest-rate advantage with the U.S. will continue to narrow and that will weigh on the Australian dollar.
christmas consumers continue few months next purse strings
Consumers have tightened the purse strings and this could continue over the next few months approaching Christmas.
bank central employment forecast growth interest leave likely lower past rates sort unchanged year
Growth in employment this year is likely to be substantially lower than over the past year. In that sort of environment, we forecast the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
bank central interest raise rates
There's no need for the central bank to raise interest rates again.
across faster hit input means output prices production rising stages taking
Input prices are rising a lot faster than output prices, which means manufacturers across all stages of production are taking a hit to their margins.
australian concern consumer depending economy exports growth slack spending transition
This is a concern for Australia's growth outlook. We've been depending on better exports to take up some of the slack in the Australian economy as consumer spending cools. So far, that transition hasn't been very smooth.
capacity clearly demand domestic easing expecting exports pick seeing slack
We've been expecting exports to pick up some of the slack of the easing domestic demand and we're not seeing this to date. So clearly there are capacity constraints out there that remain.
basis cuts easing high july points rate starting year
The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September.
area domestic economy economy-and-economics exports given needs performance prolonged sluggish unwelcome
The prolonged sluggish performance in exports is unwelcome because exports are another area of the economy that needs to improve, given the slowdown in the domestic economy.
commodity gradually peak prices pushed timing
We still think commodity prices are at their peak and will gradually come off, but we've just pushed out the timing a little bit.
certainly demand export hoping plenty prices product rebound shaky sustained volumes
We're still hoping for a big rebound in export volumes this year, but we're certainly off to a shaky start. We think there's plenty of demand and that prices will be sustained -- it's just getting the product out there.