Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
australian concern consumer depending economy exports growth slack spending transition
This is a concern for Australia's growth outlook. We've been depending on better exports to take up some of the slack in the Australian economy as consumer spending cools. So far, that transition hasn't been very smooth.
building consumer economic growth home rotation sources spending
The much-needed rotation in the sources of Australia's economic growth away from consumer spending and home building is well under way.
further interest provide rates reasons remain reports
These reports provide further reasons for interest rates to remain on hold.
advantage australian continue interest narrow weigh
The interest-rate advantage with the U.S. will continue to narrow and that will weigh on the Australian dollar.
capacity capital continue exports highlights investment report struggling third
Exports are struggling to get traction. The monthly report highlights the capacity constraints in Australia. We need a lot more capital investment to alleviate the bottlenecks. Exports will continue to take away from GDP in the third quarter.
christmas consumers continue few months next purse strings
Consumers have tightened the purse strings and this could continue over the next few months approaching Christmas.
bank central employment forecast growth interest leave likely lower past rates sort unchanged year
Growth in employment this year is likely to be substantially lower than over the past year. In that sort of environment, we forecast the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.
bank central interest raise rates
There's no need for the central bank to raise interest rates again.
across faster hit input means output prices production rising stages taking
Input prices are rising a lot faster than output prices, which means manufacturers across all stages of production are taking a hit to their margins.
confidence consumer difficult eight fallen five last months signals
Consumer confidence has fallen five times in the last eight months and signals that the difficult times are not over for households.
economy economy-and-economics employment forward interest likely rate rates rising weaker
Employment is likely to be much weaker going forward and the jobless rate will keep rising as the economy cools. Interest rates are on hold.
capacity clearly demand domestic easing expecting exports pick seeing slack
We've been expecting exports to pick up some of the slack of the easing domestic demand and we're not seeing this to date. So clearly there are capacity constraints out there that remain.
basis cuts easing high july points rate starting year
The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September.
building central correction housing move rate rose though
We don't think there is anything to warrant a rate move from the central bank. Even though building approvals rose in November, housing is still in correction mode.