Jeffrey Saut
Jeffrey Saut
consensus technology
The consensus is technology is cheap, and I think that's probably true.
economy grew historic nowhere optimistic percent stocks talk
The cheerleaders talk about the economy growing, but the economy grew at 7 percent from 1966 to 1982, while stocks went nowhere because valuations were too optimistic. And they're optimistic now, by historic measurements.
assuming buy earnings recovery shaped stocks
If you think you can recklessly buy stocks you have to be assuming more than a V-shaped recovery in earnings -- you have to be assuming a hockey-stick shaped recovery.
coming deflation earnings growth guidance keeps percent recession worried year
I'm not bearish. I don't think we're going into a recession and I'm not worried about deflation ... But earnings growth should only be about 7 to 8 percent this year and guidance for earnings keeps coming down.
assumption complacent earnings economy highs interest market mending momentum oil people prices rates record rising slowing terrorist
The market is not priced for oil prices at record highs and rising interest rates and slowing earnings momentum and terrorist worries. People are pretty complacent out there. The assumption is that the economy is mending and that this will be a robust, self-sustaining recovery.
coming earnings
Earnings are coming in pretty much on target.
coming earnings option
Earnings are coming in pretty much on target. We do have an option expiration so there is a lot of noise.
among dedicated dedication investors short smarter tend
Dedicated short sellers tend to be among the smarter investors on the Street,
boring investing
I've been investing in boring things, and boring has been pretty good.
claims coming gap lows market trade
The narrowing of the trade gap and claims coming in at four-year lows has a lot to do with today's market action.
bullish time
The time to be bullish was back in October.
earnings handicap higher momentum premium risk
I don't know how to handicap terrorism, other than to say that I think the risk premium should be higher than it is. But I think I can predict, directionally, earnings and the momentum of the economy.
based conclusion interest investment market noise short stretch
There is a lot of noise in the short interest figures, ... It's a stretch to come to a market investment conclusion or even an inference based on short interest.
beginning market tendency toward
Typically at the beginning of the year, there is a tendency toward reinvestment dollars, which should at least give the market a hint of an upward rise.