Jim Melcher
Jim Melcher
case excuse money
There's a lot of money out there and a willingness to take any excuse to put it to work, in this case the Fed.
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The worst hit sectors today are the ones that have gone up the most. They've had a great rise and so it's normal to see this kind of pullback.
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I think odds are we'll move higher in the week ahead. There's a lot of liquidity, it's what's buoying the markets, it's what's distorting the market, and it tends to move prices up.
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However, we're moving into a slower time for money flows in March and April.
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If you get foreigners moving money out of U.S. Treasuries in a quick way, then you are talking about interest rates moving up quite a bit, maybe 150 basis points.
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I think it's a combination of the oil prices and GM today. There's been a heightened focus on inflation recently, and energy prices are a major component in inflation.
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This rally could easily be a strong rally in a bear market. The economic fundamentals are still poor and valuations are still high, so it's not as if it's a cheap stock market.
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We've got deteriorating economic fundamentals still. We're probably in a mild recession, but the question is will the consumer keep buying and will the investor keep buying stocks.
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What we have is a very small marginal edge of a positive view on this. Wall Street is cynical.