John Lonski
John Lonski
energy holiday mediocre prices season shopping unless
Unless energy prices ease, the holiday shopping season will probably be mediocre at best.
bonds borrowing costs minimize stepped time
If the government's so smart, then why haven't corporations done this a long time ago? Corporations have actually stepped up 30-year bonds because they think they will minimize borrowing costs over time.
averages equity five growth law market percent seems year
Five years of having equity market growth of 25 percent a year seems to be a thing of the past. The law of long-term averages is reasserting itself.
economy
The economy is doing better, but where is profitability?
eventually expect fed hit less move neutral note percent start yield
The Fed will eventually move to a neutral stance, and I don't think we're there yet. When we start to see payrolls of 200,000 a month, I expect the yield on the 10-year note will hit 4.5 percent and the Fed will become less patient.
bottom clearer happen help
It would help to put in a bottom if we had a clearer idea of what may happen in Iraq,
bonds buy convinced economy rates rising rush slow unless
Don't rush out to buy long-term bonds as rates are rising unless you're convinced that the economy is going to slow significantly.
chance complete federal funds good late percent rate rise
I think there's a very good chance we could see the Federal funds rate rise to at least 5.25 percent by year's end, ... If not up to 5.5 percent, which would be a complete reversal of late 1998's three-staged reduction.
brings gains
This brings the possibility of steeper-than-anticipated gains in profits.
evidence sluggish
This could be interpreted as evidence of a still soft, sluggish economy.
economy fed gain half hikes imply latest lie mark rate second speed temporary turning
This could mark a turning point. After all, the Fed was right, the latest slowdown was temporary and the economy is about to gain speed going into the second half of 2005, which would imply that more rate hikes lie ahead.
everyday handle mean talk
We can talk about GDP, but what does that mean to most people? The everyday American has a better handle on where the Dow is today, where it was not long ago and where it was at its peak.
economy might program pull tax
We have some hint that the tax rebate program just might be able to pull the economy out of its funk,
brakes consumer dangerous debt mix quickly
What we have here is a dangerous mix of fast-growing debt and fast-rising unemployment that could quickly put the brakes on consumer spending.