Jonathan Loynes
Jonathan Loynes
assumption average casting chances doubt grow household line monetary next policy rate spending three weak
A very weak report, casting doubt on the Monetary Policy Committee's assumption that household spending will grow in line with its long-term average over the next three years and boosting the chances of a rate cut.
figures finances public rather uk
August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected.
near term
I think in the near term there will be more upward pressure,
areas creation financial information job require service services skilled technology
Job creation is concentrated in the service sector, ... High-growth areas such as financial services and information technology require skilled workers.
below cut forecast growth hard inflation interest left work
It would have been better to have left the growth forecast unchanged, but that would have lowered the inflation forecast to below its target. They are having to work hard not to have to cut interest rates.
conclude equally growth lift perceived preparing rates risks seen signal strong time upside
The ECB may feel that the time is right to conclude that the risks to growth are now more equally balanced. Without a corresponding softening of the perceived upside risk to inflation, this would be seen as a strong signal that it is preparing to lift rates further.
growing high might modest past spending street
The downturn in the High Street might be past its worst, but spending is still growing at pretty modest rates.
christmas confirm evidence figures growth retail sales spending uk
January's UK retail sales figures confirm the evidence from the surveys that the pick-up in spending growth over Christmas was short-lived.
british cut dent expect falling further growth inflation interest modest monetary prompt prospects rate rise sluggish year
While the stronger-than-expected rise in British GDP put a further dent in the prospects of an interest rate cut in February, we still expect the combination of sluggish growth and falling inflation this year to prompt a modest loosening of monetary policy.
balanced convinced economic period start stronger wholly
We are not wholly convinced that this is the start of a period of stronger and more healthily balanced economic growth, however.