Jonathan Loynes
Jonathan Loynes
clearly closer data decision hold interest markets members prompt rates rather recent seemed stronger surprised tone vote
The stronger tone of recent data was clearly enough to prompt most members of the MPC to vote to keep interest rates on hold today, but we would not be surprised if the decision was rather closer than the markets seemed to think.
below cut forecast growth hard inflation interest left work
It would have been better to have left the growth forecast unchanged, but that would have lowered the inflation forecast to below its target. They are having to work hard not to have to cut interest rates.
conclude equally growth lift perceived preparing rates risks seen signal strong time upside
The ECB may feel that the time is right to conclude that the risks to growth are now more equally balanced. Without a corresponding softening of the perceived upside risk to inflation, this would be seen as a strong signal that it is preparing to lift rates further.
growing high might modest past spending street
The downturn in the High Street might be past its worst, but spending is still growing at pretty modest rates.
christmas confirm evidence figures growth retail sales spending uk
January's UK retail sales figures confirm the evidence from the surveys that the pick-up in spending growth over Christmas was short-lived.
assumption average casting chances doubt grow household line monetary next policy rate spending three weak
A very weak report, casting doubt on the Monetary Policy Committee's assumption that household spending will grow in line with its long-term average over the next three years and boosting the chances of a rate cut.
figures finances public rather uk
August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected.
near term
I think in the near term there will be more upward pressure,
areas creation financial information job require service services skilled technology
Job creation is concentrated in the service sector, ... High-growth areas such as financial services and information technology require skilled workers.
door inflation march open rate report retail sales soft thursday tomorrow
A dovish Inflation Report tomorrow and soft retail sales on Thursday could open the door to a March rate cut.
committee cutting markets rates reluctance stopped surprise
Indeed, it may only have been a reluctance to surprise the markets that stopped the committee from cutting rates (last week).
coming cyclical growth italy low performance rather recovery remain structural
Italy is going to remain at the back of the performance tables. We should see a pick-up in growth this year, but it is coming off a very low base. It is a cyclical recovery rather than any kind of real structural improvement.
acted early landing scenario soft
The MPC has acted early and aggressively. The soft landing scenario is still on track.
late leave next political raise sometime taxes
I don't think he can put off the inevitable. Sometime in the next two years he will have to raise taxes but he won't want to leave it too late in the political cycle.