Justin Smirk
Justin Smirk
capacity shortage threat
There was a shortage of capacity before Katrina, which got worse, and which is now under threat from Rita.
break cycle demand higher highs likely medium negative neither positive seem shock short supply
The highs are getting higher and so are the lows. The only way to break that cycle is a negative demand shock or a positive supply shock, neither of which seem likely in the short to medium term.
crude effect matter meaningful prices product pump refined
It doesn't matter how much crude you pump in, you won't have a meaningful effect on prices if you can't get refined product out,
feeling further iran lying people risk somewhat supply
What people are feeling is that Iran is a longer-term issue. The risk to supply is lying much further out, and is still somewhat unclear.
although dealing further hurricane risks season shock supply
We're dealing with the short-term supply shock now, although there are still further risks as the hurricane season continues.
assuming average bit good growth hold negative rebuilding
The post-drought rebuilding will hold back a bit of the growth and see agriculture still being a negative for 2005-06, but set us up for a very good 2006-07 - assuming average seasonal conditions,
cream crude driven market robust supplies
We're being bounced around as robust crude supplies take the cream off a market driven up by geo-political concerns.