Keith Hembre
Keith Hembre
begin benign final financial growth happens inflation lead pressures quarters seen three year
Growth should decelerate through the final three quarters of the year and once that happens inflation pressures we've seen will begin to ease. That should lead to a more benign tightening cycle, which won't be threatening to the financial markets,
overall surprises
Overall there are not a lot of surprises here.
boosts cement chance fed friendly march rate
It's not friendly for the Fed at all. This boosts the chance of a March rate increase; it should cement 4.75 percent.
coin constraint fed inflation lifts oil overall places prices remain side
Oil is a double-edged sword. From one aspect, it lifts overall inflation but from the other side of the same coin it places a constraint on growth. So if oil prices remain high, the implications for the Fed get a little dicey,
equally goods historical initially lower nature pattern purchases roughly savings shocks
The historical pattern is for shocks of this nature to initially be absorbed roughly equally between lower savings and lower purchases for other goods and services.
boost fourth given pace robust
It'll boost first-quarter GDP at a robust pace given the sluggishness of the fourth quarter.
component due employment energy higher large paid prices rose surprised
I was surprised by the employment index, which was a pretty large monthly increase. The prices paid component rose probably due to higher energy prices.
imply less market minutes rally
You are getting the rally in Treasuries because the minutes imply a little less tightening than what the market had anticipated.