Kevin Norrish
Kevin Norrish
benign chances coming iranian issue market matter months nuclear recent sharp time
It's only a matter of time before geopolitical developments give the market another sharp tug. The chances of a benign settlement in coming months over the Iranian nuclear issue have receded in recent weeks.
attacks dominated markets oil remains sentiment
Oil markets sentiment remains dominated by the escalation of attacks in Nigeria.
couple cut days later less market past perceived price production reacting strength weakness
Paradoxically, the price strength of the past couple of days makes a production cut ... less likely, ... If OPEC does cut production it will be reacting to perceived weakness in market fundamentals later on this year.
dramatic explosive increase oil prices rise seen spread
It's because we've had such an explosive rise in heating oil prices -- I don't think we've ever seen such a dramatic increase in the spread between heating oil and crude.
crack current cut front gasoline message month sending strong weakness
The current weakness in the front month gasoline crack spreads is unprecedented and is sending a strong message to refiners about the need to sharply cut production.
nigerian potential run situation
The Nigerian situation has the potential to get a lot worse. It's going to run and run.
continue currently external iran key major matters oil prices relations remain risk situation upside wild
Iran matters more than is currently priced in and Iran's external relations remain the key wild card. We continue to see the situation as representing the major upside risk for oil prices this year.
appears attention both buying catalyst cold drawing forecast fuel higher interest likelihood markets move release sides weather winter
The catalyst for the move higher appears to have been the release of a weather forecast drawing attention to the likelihood of another cold winter, prompting a surge of buying interest in winter fuel markets on both sides of the Atlantic.
focus inventory market move upwards
If it weren't for the market's focus on short-term inventory data, the market would be a lot higher. We're retracing, even if the move upwards was not as big as it could have been.
course currently expected fallen figures inventory iranian keeping market meeting oil potential prices release since situation wednesday worse
Oil prices have fallen since the release of worse than expected US oil inventory figures on Wednesday but the potential for the Iranian situation to worsen during the course of the IAEA meeting currently underway is keeping oil market participants wary.
breaks cut explicitly highest per price record
At US$63.92 per barrel, this breaks the record for the highest WTI price at which a cut has been explicitly called for.
crack current cut front message month petrol sending strong weakness
The current weakness in front month petrol crack spreads is unprecedented and is sending a very strong message to refiners about the need to sharply cut production.
concern crude disruption few market output potential stretched system tightly
There's still going to be concern about potential hurricanes in the market for a few months. Crude output and refining are so tightly stretched that you don't need a big disruption to put the system under a lot of pressure.
crude move prices summer supports view
This supports our view that crude prices will soften as we move through the summer months.