Kurt Karl
Kurt Karl
constraint consumer higher housing interest oil prices rates rising slowing
Oil prices are higher and there's a constraint on the consumer because of that. You've also got rising interest rates and a slowing housing market.
cessation further future increases perhaps rate rates road rolling start
The implication is in the not-to-distant future, perhaps after one more hike, there is going to be a cessation of rate increases and perhaps further down the road they will start rolling rates back.
biggest consumers continue happened hard inflation last major month numbers prices reports retailers sustain turn view
My view on inflation is we'll continue to get reports like this, and the biggest numbers we'll get are 0.1s and 0.2s, ... U.S. consumers just turn it off when they see the prices go up, as happened last month with cars, so it's going to be hard for retailers to sustain any major price increases.
fourth included katrina momentum oil prices report seem spike strong
This is a very positive, strong report and encouraging because it included Katrina and a spike in oil prices and we still just seem to have a lot of momentum going into the fourth quarter.
avoiding bit economy housing increase interest later necessary problems raising rates slowing time
We have a housing valuation issue. The time is now for raising interest rates and defusing these problems potentially by slowing down the economy a bit and avoiding a big necessary increase later and a consequential recession.
deficit equity improved looked move negative record risk
We improved in May, but it looked too good, so we may have some payback and that could move the market. The possibility of a record deficit would be a shock. It's a negative risk for the equity market.
cause certainly clear exact katrina looks reason risky
We don't know the exact cause or reason, but it's certainly clear when you look at the worst-ever catastrophic event, which it looks like Katrina will be, we're in a different world, and it's a much more risky world for catastrophic events.