Lawrence Eagles
Lawrence Eagles
behind clearly doubt driving east force gasoline main market middle momentum provides tension upside
While gasoline was clearly the main driving force behind the market on Friday, there is little doubt that the Middle East tension also provides some upside momentum for crude.
clear demand high impact moment oil prices seen signs starting
There are clear signs at the moment that we are starting to see the impact of high oil prices on demand -- and that's being seen in many regions.
caution clearly collapse currently early given main next oil paranoia price pumping threatens
Given the paranoia of the cartel that it is currently pumping too much oil and that this threatens a price collapse early next year, caution will clearly be the main watchword.
airline clear concern explain reason
No one fundamental reason can explain this whopping fall, ... There is concern that demand, particularly from the airline industry, could fall. There are clear recessionary concerns.
although clearly few next opportunity overnight peace signs three window
There were a few signs overnight that, although clearly tensions are rising, there is a window of opportunity for some peace settlement over the next three days.
clear east far market middle premium remain situation strong until
As far as the Middle East is concerned, there is still strong justification for a premium to remain in the market until it is clear the situation is much calmer on the ground,
clearly however risk small
There is clearly a risk that this is going to happen, however small that risk may be,
dangerous follow game playing prepared
OPEC is playing a dangerous game of bluff, and has to be prepared to follow it through.
band below cause itself mechanism price shown slump waiting
OPEC has shown itself to be market-savvy by recognizing that waiting for the price band mechanism to kick-in could cause a slump well below $22 a barrel,
agreeing cut discuss february january likely meeting paranoia time
OPEC has a paranoia with oversupply, ... This weekend's meeting is likely to see OPEC agreeing to meet some time in January or February to discuss a cut in supply.
arabia believe further move prices reason word
Without any further word from Saudi Arabia about production, ... there is no reason to believe that we won't see prices move higher.
continue crude current feeling next physical prices surplus week
Our feeling is that with the current surplus of physical crude that prices will continue to erode from here for the next week or two.
agree feeling global impact net supplies
Our feeling is that OPEC will agree to the increase, but that the net impact on global supplies will be negligible.
again avoid barrel excess falling last prices supply time wants year
This time last year prices were around $32 a barrel before falling to $22 a barrel in May, because of excess supply in the market. OPEC wants to avoid that (happening again this year),