Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun is a Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors. He oversees the production of existing home sales statistics and the popular Home Buyer and Home Seller survey reports. He regularly appears on CNBC, BBC, Bloomberg Television, and is often quoted in the media. Yun is also a frequent speaker at Real Estate conferences throughout the United States. In March 2008, USA Today listed him among the top 10 economic forecasters in...
affordable available continued forecast growth jobs number remains south steady
So long as the South remains affordable and the number of available jobs remains steady we forecast continued growth in Atlanta.
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Our experience says prices do not go down when there's job creation in the local economy. In local markets where they are flat on jobs, they could see prices decline. But we're projecting 2.3 million new jobs this year. The job market is providing a buffer. It's a counter force to rising rates.
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You're seeing two separate markets. One is in the coastal regions where you're seeing a substantial decline in home sales. The second is in the middle part of the country, in the affordable regions, where the job market is more important than interest rates.
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You need a strong job market with people in their 20s moving out of their parents' homes before rents recover.
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In the Midwest, where homes are very affordable and where home prices have risen much slower than the national average, sales are more dependent on job growth in the overall economy.
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Any time there's job creation, historically prices don't go down.
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People are moving out of these regions to the South and the West. They're putting more supply on the market at the same time there is less demand.
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People have been saying that for 20 years. But in San Francisco, it's very difficult to build, so there's a supply constraint. Seattle is also encountering a supply-constraint situation.
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Nationwide, the numbers clearly indicate the market is cooling, but cooling from the record sales pace in 2005. Now, we're experiencing what we characterize as healthy levels.
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We have been monitoring several markets where there could be significant stress due to the market correction. Chicago is not on that list.
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What we had in the past couple of years was an unprecedented frenzy of activity. That's what we're seeing: A decline from a frenzied, unsustainable rate.
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I am confident in saying Atlanta will continue to see growth over the next year. The Atlanta area is less sensitive to changes in the housing market right now.
rates
Obviously, many renters have become homeowners as rates have fallen.
adjust takes time
Sellers are stubborn. It takes a long time for sellers to adjust their expectations.