Marshall Steeves
Marshall Steeves
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Oil prices have consolidated in the upper $60s. There's a balance between the supportive geopolitical concerns respecting Nigeria and Iran, verses the bearish influence of excess crude supplies and warm U.S. winter weather.
gasoline interest oil
Heating oil is ascendant right now, while interest in gasoline wanes.
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The gasoline data is bullish and right now gasoline futures are showing the highest gains. We'll see if that leads the market.
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Inventory levels remain well above average and near-term supplies are not a problem, so the recent rally will be difficult to sustain.
brief hopefully likely spike
There will likely be a brief (post-hurricane) spike as with Katrina. Hopefully it will not be prolonged.
crude means using
Also refinery utilization was lower, which was also unexpected. It means that refineries are not using as much crude, so as a consequence of that we got a larger-then-expected crude build.
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There was a larger-than-expected draw in crude-oil stocks and imports fell, which was surprising given that ports had reopened. The size of the distillate draw wasn't spectacular but is disconcerting given that we are approaching the heating season.
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It's a weather story. After experiencing an incredible Arctic weather pattern in most of December there is now evidence of a warm-up after Christmas.
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The fear of a replication of that is going to keep the market on its toes and we could easily test $70 a barrel.
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Heating oil is ascendant right now, while interest in gasoline wanes. The size of the distillate draw wasn't spectacular but is disconcerting given that we are approaching the heating season.
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Gasoline demand is low enough and imports high enough to have another stock build.
draw gasoline given interest oil size
The size of the distillate draw wasn't spectacular but is disconcerting given that we are approaching the heating season. Heating oil is ascendant right now, while interest in gasoline wanes.
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Gasoline will continue to lead other energy contracts until Gulf-area refineries return and European imports start to arrive.
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After Hurricane Ivan, it took several weeks to know the full extent of the damage to seabed pipelines. Some people are quite worried that this time could be worse because of the strength of Katrina.