Michael Carty
Michael Carty
Michael Cartywas an Irish Fianna Fáil politician. Born in Loughrea, County Galway to Lawrence and Josephine Carty, he was the eldest of seven children. A schoolteacher by profession, he was first elected to Dáil Éireann as a Fianna Fáil TD for the Galway South constituency at the 1957 general election. From 1961 to 1969, he represented the Galway East constituency, and from 1969 to 1973 the Clare–Galway South constituency. He retired from politics in 1973...
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The economy remains in a growth pattern, and normally the market would be responding favorably. But people are worried about inflation, the rise in energy prices and the weak dollar.
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In most election years, stocks are up. But when you think about the kinds of policies that are going to be implemented, the market gets a little worried. So, I would say up until the election you will see some very interesting dynamics. If they feel that a demonstration is favorable, drug stocks will get in then and all of a sudden the drug stocks will start looking hot. If the economy seems to be moving along nicely the high-tech new economy-type stocks will continue to do well,
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Most analysts are calling for the market to rise between 5 percent and 10 percent next year, but I think it could be more like 15 percent. The economy is heating up, the employment picture has been improving and companies will begin spending more.
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You've got two things: a horrible retail environment ... and oil prices are up to $32 a barrel. When energy prices rise they pervade all aspects of the economy and costs go up. ... The big thing overhanging the market is what we are going to do with Iraq.
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The markets seem to be rising as a consequence of the fact that the Federal Reserve had decreased the interest rate by half a percentage point and the fact that people began to believe the Fed was going to do whatever it can do to continue to see the economy turn around.
oil prices
The oil prices are really a bugaboo on the market.
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There seems to be a lot of economic momentum and earnings momentum fueling this market.
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I think tomorrow should be a fairly positive open, with the techs a little higher on Microsoft and in response to the action over the last few days. We've had a couple of ugly sessions and you're likely to see a little bounce off of that.
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The new orders index was better, profits are going to be up a little, interest rates are at a record low, there have been so many layoffs that that may start to dry up, there will be rising productivity and higher profit margins -- all these things combined could give some support,
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If a company is so sure that their stock is a bargain that they're willing to buy it back, that's reassuring.
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Because inflation is modest, and worries about that are starting to diminish, I think the focus will turn to earnings, and the earnings are going to be very strong.
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First off, Microsoft does have a good product mix, ... It has a five-year earnings growth rate, which is somewhere around 15 percent because it is a giant after all.
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In general, the news continues to be mostly good, but people are now waiting to see what the next rotation will be in stocks, or what the next catalyst will be to move the market higher.
factors
It's one of these choppy days, where there are a lot of different factors at play.