Michael Fitzpatrick
Michael Fitzpatrick
Singer best known as the frontman for the soul-pop band Fitz and the Tantrums. The band's debut LP, Pickin' Up the Pieces, hit number one on the Billboard Heatseekers chart in 2010.
ProfessionSoul Singer
Date of Birth21 July 1970
CityMontlucon, France
likelihood panic possible worst yesterday
There was a lot of panic yesterday as we all thought about the worst possible scenarios. The likelihood is that the worst won't occur.
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It is apparently going to take more than growing inventories to turn prices seriously lower.
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Last year began with a large surplus but an unusually hot summer ate up those reserves and soon thereafter the hurricanes hit. There is still some infrastructure that was damaged, which could be a problem.
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While a late-winter cold snap or cool spring could whittle down some of the storage surplus, it is probably too late to prevent stocks from ending the heating season at record-high levels.
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Repairs are proceeding apace. Discretionary driving can be cut back but you have got to heat your house. Heating oil will soon lead the market.
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While Iran seems to be going back and forth on the use of oil as a political weapon, that issue will probably remain in the forefront for the near term, at least.
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With Iran indicating on Thursday that they would not stop enriching uranium, fears of sanctions surfaced which probably prompted fresh speculative buying.
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We are starting to see a change in consumer behavior. Consumers are cutting back because of high prices, rising interest rates and signs that the housing bubble is ending. Prices have probably begun the long steady process of grinding lower.
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We are in a waiting pattern until the numbers are released. The conditions that brought us to these levels remain, so we may resume our move higher once the report is digested.
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If the stock market were not making five- and six-year highs, Iran and the U.S. were fast friends and the Nigerian militants were stuffing flowers in the gun muzzles of the Nigerian army -- then we might be worried about a reversal, but not now.
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If injections from April through October match last year's pace, stocks could begin the next heating season with a record 3.6 trillion cubic feet in the ground.
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I can't see the lost production being restored fast enough to reverse prices.
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Certainly the current supply fundamentals make it difficult to bid up prices much further.
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Even in a bull market you get periods of a little relief, and this is one of them. Some of the Iranian words today were conciliatory. In reality nothing has changed and the market will soon rise again.