Michael Hume
Michael Hume
cannot confident data feasible federal flow given hikes hold mixed neutral raise rate reserve series stage
The ECB is right to hold back on guidance. Given the mixed data flow on growth, it cannot be confident that a series of rate hikes back to neutral is feasible at this stage in the way that the Federal Reserve was when it started to raise rates.
continue data expect half incredibly march point rates remain robust suggest survey time
I don't think they'll want to suggest March is a done deal, but I think at the same time they'll probably want to give indications that rates remain incredibly low, and that survey data continue to point to a robust first half of the year. So I think you can expect to see some firming up of the language.
camp cut fighting hard middle rate ready risen risk shows
The risk of a (U.K.) rate cut has risen sharply with this vote. It shows the doves are fighting pretty hard but there is a middle camp which is ready to be persuaded.
casts data doubt fairly flow german hard mixed past recovery retail softer strong survey three turning
The data flow has been pretty mixed over the past three weeks, with survey data fairly robust, but most of the hard data -- German retail sales, employment, consumption -- turning out on the softer side, which casts some doubt on how strong the recovery is.